Dry and windy for a while…

Cottonball cumulus clouds are trying to grow over the mountains - 4/18/2021 at 11:15am

Cottonball cumulus clouds are trying to grow over the mountains  – 4/18/2021 at 11:15am

Sunday – 18 Apr 2021 – 11:30am

Overall situation…

The low this morning at the airfield was 20.  We had 14 for a low just north of Turkey Springs and Mark bottomed out at 10 near Hatcher Lake.

We had three waves of precip yesterday: first in the morning, then a band of strong showers and a couple of thunderstorms roughly 2-3:30pm, and finally another round of showers around 5pm.  Snow reports were mostly in the 1-2” range with a couple of lucky spots getting around 3”.  Our friends in Chama were the winners with 5”. Based on snotel data, Wolf Creek ended up with 5-6”.

Congratulations MARIE HUMENCZUK for winning our thunderstorm contest!  Her guess of April 18th at 9:52pm was the closest. Marie won a $25 gift certificate at Four Corners Organics. Here’s the link to the contest post for more information:

The upper level low is spinning over northeast Arizona and will continue to slowly move south. It’s just close enough to kick up a couple of afternoon showers and a possible thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the mountains.

*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid tomorrow, Monday, noon to 9pm.  “A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.” ***

No changes for next week… We will be in an in-between pattern.  A couple of weak, moisture-starved systems will move through and keep the atmosphere just unstable enough to kick up a few isolated afternoon showers.  Unfortunately, the pesky spring winds will stay with us.

Water vapor shows the low spinning over northeast Arizona and it’s slowly moving south.  Drier air, indicated by yellow, has moved into our area, but the low is just close enough to cause instability leading to a slight chance for a shower this afternoon.
Water vapor shows the low spinning over northeast Arizona and it’s slowly moving south.  Drier air, indicated by yellow, has moved into our area, but the low is just close enough to cause instability leading to a slight chance for a shower this afternoon.

My forecast…

Today… Cumulus clouds will build over the mountains through the afternoon.  A few of those cumulus clouds could grow into showers or a thunderstorm, mainly over the mountains.

Winds should stay under 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 30mph are possible near showers.

Highs today will be upper 40s to mid-50s.  Tonight will be chilly with lows flirting with a record.  Lows will be around 10 to the lower 20s.

The 3km resolution NAM forecast radar at 4pm today shows the very spotty nature of the showers.
The 3km resolution NAM forecast radar at 4pm today shows the very spotty nature of the showers.
This is the 3km resolution NAM forecast cape, a measure of instability, at 4pm today. Anything over 300 in our area indicates potential for showers and maybe a thunderstorm.
This is the 3km resolution NAM forecast cape, a measure of instability, at 4pm today. Anything over 300 in our area indicates potential for showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Monday through Friday… Expect partly cloudy skies and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains.  If you see a few raindrops, consider yourself lucky. High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be 20-30. Gusty afternoon winds are likely each day with peaks in the 25-35mph range.  Unfortunately with the dry air and gusty winds, fire danger will remain high.

The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows hardly any precip in our area.  Let’s hope something changes!
The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows hardly any precip in our area.  Let’s hope something changes!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6175 / 19872614 / 1970

I might do a snowpack, drought, and river flow post later today.  Otherwise, my next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon