Cottonball cumulus clouds are trying to grow over the mountains – 4/18/2021 at 11:15am
Sunday – 18 Apr 2021 – 11:30am
Overall situation…
The low this morning at the airfield was 20. We had 14 for a low just north of Turkey Springs and Mark bottomed out at 10 near Hatcher Lake.
We had three waves of precip yesterday: first in the morning, then a band of strong showers and a couple of thunderstorms roughly 2-3:30pm, and finally another round of showers around 5pm. Snow reports were mostly in the 1-2” range with a couple of lucky spots getting around 3”. Our friends in Chama were the winners with 5”. Based on snotel data, Wolf Creek ended up with 5-6”.
Congratulations MARIE HUMENCZUK for winning our thunderstorm contest! Her guess of April 18th at 9:52pm was the closest. Marie won a $25 gift certificate at Four Corners Organics. Here’s the link to the contest post for more information:
The upper level low is spinning over northeast Arizona and will continue to slowly move south. It’s just close enough to kick up a couple of afternoon showers and a possible thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the mountains.
*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid tomorrow, Monday, noon to 9pm. “A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.” ***
No changes for next week… We will be in an in-between pattern. A couple of weak, moisture-starved systems will move through and keep the atmosphere just unstable enough to kick up a few isolated afternoon showers. Unfortunately, the pesky spring winds will stay with us.
My forecast…
Today… Cumulus clouds will build over the mountains through the afternoon. A few of those cumulus clouds could grow into showers or a thunderstorm, mainly over the mountains.
Winds should stay under 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 30mph are possible near showers.
Highs today will be upper 40s to mid-50s. Tonight will be chilly with lows flirting with a record. Lows will be around 10 to the lower 20s.
Monday through Friday… Expect partly cloudy skies and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains. If you see a few raindrops, consider yourself lucky. High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be 20-30. Gusty afternoon winds are likely each day with peaks in the 25-35mph range. Unfortunately with the dry air and gusty winds, fire danger will remain high.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 61 | 75 / 1987 | 26 | 14 / 1970 |
I might do a snowpack, drought, and river flow post later today. Otherwise, my next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
