Fun weather day tomorrow!

Smoke is drifting into the area from a controlled burn occurring between Beaver Creek Road and First Notch Road, north of Highway 160 between Bayfield and Pagosa Springs… 4/12/2021

Smoke is drifting into the area from a controlled burn occurring between Beaver Creek Road and First Notch Road, north of Highway 160 between Bayfield and Pagosa Springs…   4/12/2021

Monday – 12 Apr 2021 – 2:30pm

Overall situation…

The low this morning at the airfield was 29.5 and the high so far today is 62.2.  Peak winds at the airfield have been 29.9mph and we have hit 26mph just north of Turkey Springs.

Regarding the smoke in the area, this is from the USDA Forest Service – San Juan National Forest Facebook page:  “The Columbine Ranger District Fire and Fuels Management staff have prepared and planned prescribed fires in the Vallecito-Piedra area beginning today (12 April) and continuing into May, weather permitting. Operations will take place between Beaver Creek Road and First Notch Road, north of Highway 160 between Bayfield and Pagosa Springs.”

The upper level ridge is slowly retrograding towards the west.  By tomorrow the ridge will be far enough west to allow an upper level low to drop out of the north and spin over the Great Basin most of next week.  Pieces of energy will move across our region and keep us unsettled.

Water vapor shows quite a few clouds over the region. The ridge has moved farther west off the Coast. The trough along the WA/OR border will strengthen as it moves south towards the Great Basin. It will then push some the moisture currently over California into our area tomorrow.
Water vapor shows quite a few clouds over the region.  The ridge has moved farther west off the Coast.  The trough along the WA/OR border will strengthen as it moves south towards the Great Basin.  It will then push some of the moisture currently over California into our area tomorrow.

My forecast…

Tonight through Tuesday night… Clouds will increase tonight with spotty showers possible after midnight, mainly over the mountains.  The best chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two will be Tuesday afternoon into the evening.  Spotty showers could persist through Tuesday night, especially over the mountains. All types of precip are possible with “rainflakes” in the valley during the coldest part of the night and then rain, graupel, and small hail during the day along with gusty winds and lightning.  Our mountains above 9,500ft will get 2-4” of snow.  Highs will be mid to upper 50s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.  Winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.

The NBM precip through Wednesday at 6am shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.
The NBM precip through Wednesday at 6am shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and a slight chance for afternoon showers, mainly over the mountains. High temps will be 50 to 60 and lows will be 20 to 30.  Wednesday will be the warmest day with temps at the high end of those ranges and Friday will be coolest day with temps at the low end of those ranges. Winds will peak in the 25-35mph range.

The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains. Most of the precip in our area will fall on Tuesday.
The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains.  Most of the precip in our area will fall on Tuesday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5875 / 1907237 / 1951

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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