More clouds tomorrow – showers on Tuesday

Williams Creek Reservoir is still about 95% frozen… 4/11/2021

Williams Creek Reservoir is still about 95% frozen…   4/11/2021

Sunday – 11 Apr 2021 – 5:10pm

Overall situation…

The low this morning at the airfield was 25.7 and the high today was 64.4.  Peak winds at the airfield were 34.5mph and we hit 38mph just north of Turkey Springs.

*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid until 8pm today.  “A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire danger”. ***

The upper level ridge will stay in control until Monday night.  By Tuesday, the ridge is expected to retrograde further to the west and this will allow an upper level low to drop out of the north and spin over the Great Basin most of next week.  Pieces of energy will move across our region and keep us unsettled.

Water vapor shows dry air over us this afternoon, but high clouds will increase from the southwest overnight.  The system that will keep us unsettled this week will move south into the Great Basin by Tuesday afternoon.
Water vapor shows dry air over us this afternoon, but high clouds will increase from the southwest overnight.  The system that will keep us unsettled this week will move south into the Great Basin by Tuesday afternoon.

My forecast…

Tonight and Monday…  High clouds will increase overnight and winds will weaken.  High clouds and a few mid-level clouds will stick with us tomorrow.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.  Temperatures will continue to be a little warmer than normal with 60-65 for highs and lows overnight in the low 20s to low30s.

Monday night through Tuesday night… Clouds will increase Monday night with spotty showers possible by sunrise, especially over the mountains.  The best chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two will be Tuesday afternoon into the evening.  Spotty showers could persist through the night, especially over the mountains. “Rainflakes” are possible in the valley during the coldest part of the night, otherwise it will be rain.  Our mountains above 9,500ft will get 2-4” of snow.  Highs will be mid to upper 50s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.  Winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.

The National Weather Service 72-hour precip shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.
The National Weather Service 72-hour precip shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.
The National Weather Service 72-hour snowfall shows none over the valley and 2-4” in our mountains.
The National Weather Service 72-hour snowfall shows none over the valley and 2-4” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and a slight chance for afternoon showers, mainly over the mountains. High temps will be mid-50s to around 60 and lows will be lower 20s to lower 30s.  Winds will peak in the 20-30mph range, and possibly higher on Thursday.  It’s too early to trust the details.

The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Nearly all of this precip will fall on Tuesday.
The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Nearly all of this precip will fall on Tuesday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5777 / 1916232 / 1951

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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