Update: disappointing so far but it’s not over

Wolf Creek Pass web cam

Off and on snowshowers continue to move over Wolf Creek Pass but the roads just look wet…   4/13/2021at 6:10pm

Update – 13 Apr 2021 – 6:40pm

So far the best storm energy has missed us, but it’s not over. We still have a shot for showers and a thunderstorm or two until midnight.

Infrared satellite shows bands of showers across the region.
Infrared satellite shows bands of showers across the region.
Regional radar lines up nicely with satellite, but the Four Corners radar gap makes it hard for us to see what's upstream
Regional radar lines up nicely with satellite, but the Four Corners radar gap makes it hard for us to see what’s upstream

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning valid tomorrow, 14 April, 1pm to 9pm. ***

For more details please see the rest of my forecast below. I’ll do another update tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn


Tuesday – 13 Apr 2021 – 8:00am

Overall situation…

Cloud cover limited our cooling last night.  Lows were in the mid to upper 30s.  We had a brief “rainflake” shower near Turkey Springs as I typed this up.  I see snowshowers over most of our mountains this morning.

An upper level low is spinning over southeast Oregon and slowly sinking south.  The leading trough is moving across central Utah and kicking up showers.  The trough will move through our area this evening making things pretty active ahead of it.

The low will wobble over the Great Basin through Friday pushing pieces of energy across our region and keep us unsettled.

Water vapor shows quite a few clouds over the region.  The upper level low is spinning over southeast Oregon and the leading trough is moving through central Utah.  The trough will move through our area this evening and give us a good chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening.
Water vapor shows quite a few clouds over the region.  The upper level low is spinning over southeast Oregon and the leading trough is moving through central Utah.  The trough will move through our area this evening and give us a good chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening.
13 Apr 2021 am radar
Radar shows the low over southeast Oregon. Showers will increase this afternoon ahead of the trough.

My forecast…

Today and tonight… We’ll continue to see mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. The best chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two will be this afternoon into the evening.  Spotty showers could persist through the night, especially over the mountains. All types of precip are possible with “rainflakes” in the valley during the coldest part of the day and then rain, graupel, and small hail during the afternoon/evening along with gusty winds and lightning.  Our mountains above 9,500ft will get 2-4” of snow.  Highs will be 50 to 55 and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.  Winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.

13 Apr 2021 am NWS snowfall
The NWS snowfall shows 3-6” in our mountains.  The central and northern mountains will get the brunt of this system.
The NBM precip through Wednesday at 6am shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.
The NBM precip through Wednesday at 6am shows 0.05 to 0.15” over the valley and 0.25 to 0.40” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and a chance for afternoon showers, mainly over the mountains. High temps will be 50 to 60 and lows will be 20 to 30.  Wednesday will be the warmest day with temps at the high end of those ranges and Friday will be coolest day with temps at the low end of those ranges. Winds will peak in the 25-35mph range.

The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall on Tuesday.
The NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.10 to 0.15” over the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall on Tuesday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5874 / 1988238 / 1980

I’ll do a quick update this afternoon.  My next forecast post will be tomorrow evening.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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3 Responses

  1. Thank you Shawn for keeping us all up to date here is beautiful Pagosa. We all need to get our cars/trucks washed and then the rain will come!

  2. We had a brief snow shower on Jacobson Hill. Small flakes started around 8:15 a.m. and then showers shortly after that. Nothing sticking though!

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