More fantastic spring weather!

I was happy to get out on the river yesterday. Area streams are rising and off color as spring run-off kicks into gear – pic taken 4/2/2021

I was happy to get out on the river yesterday. Area streams are rising and off color as spring run-off kicks into gear – pic taken 4/2/2021

Saturday – 3 Apr 2021 – 10:40am

Overall situation…

Yesterday’s highs were mostly in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows this morning were mid-20s to mid-30s.  The diurnal temperature swing averaged 35-40 degrees and that trend will continue through Monday.  Showers formed over the mountains yesterday afternoon.  We got a few rain drops in the Turkey Springs area around 3:30pm along with convective winds up to 27mph.

(“Convective winds” are associated with shower or thunderstorm activity.  They are usually short-lived, less than an hour in duration, and impact small areas.)

Ridging will stay in control through most of the following week, though a weak system will move through Tuesday. For us it will be another dry system with gusty winds, temps closer to average, and elevated fire danger.

Record highs the next few days are 72 and 73.  I expect the airfield to peak in the upper 60s, but some of you will flirt with those records.

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has bumped up the avalanche potential to “considerable”.  “The potential for record high temperatures today following a very poor freeze increases the threat of wet avalanche activity. You can easily trigger a loose wet slide on steeper slopes or break-overs where the snow is wet and punchy. Wet avalanches usually start small but gain mass and speed as they move down the slope. Longer running wet slides can trigger deeper and broader wet slabs. You are more likely to trigger a dangerous wet slab from thin, rocky areas of slopes.”

Satellite shows clear skies and snow covered mountains over most of the Four Corners region.
Satellite shows clear skies and snow covered mountains over most of the Four Corners region.

My forecast…

Today through Monday… Skies will be mostly clear.  Highs temps will be mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Winds Monday afternoon will peak around 25mph.

Tuesday through Friday… We’ll continue to see lots of sun.  Look for little cotton-ball cumulus clouds to develop each afternoon.  Tuesday will be the windiest day of the week with peaks in the 30-35mph range.  It looks like we could be entering wind season with afternoon winds peaking in the 20-25mph range the rest of the week. Temps Tuesday will be 10 degrees cooler with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be 20-30.  Then we’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps 5-10 degrees above average by Friday.

The Euro model for Tuesday afternoon indicates a potential for peak winds in the mid-30mph range in the valley and 45-55mph in our mountains.
The Euro model for Tuesday afternoon indicates a potential for peak winds in the mid-30mph range in the valley and 45-55mph in our mountains.
The NBM shows zero precip in our area through next Friday.
The NBM shows zero precip in our area through next Friday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5570 / 1959213 / 1975

Arleen will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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