Another glorious Pagosa Springs spring weather day!

Sunday – 4 Apr 2021 – 10:30am

Overall situation…

Yesterday’s highs were mostly in the 60s and lows this morning were mid-20s to mid-30s.  The diurnal temperature swing averaged 35-40 degrees and that trend will repeat today and tomorrow.  Yesterday was mostly clear with only a few clouds moving through Pagosa Springs.  Even the winds behaved themselves with 10mph being the most reported at several locations.

Ridging will stay in control through most of this week. A weak system will move through Tuesday. For us it will be a dry system with gusty winds.  Temperatures will be lower and closer to average.  The dry blustery winds are going to elevate fire danger so be very careful if going into back country.

Record highs the next few days are 72 and 73.  The airfield should peak in the upper 60s again, but some areas will flirt with those records.

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center still has us in the avalanche potential of “considerable”.  “Yesterday’s record high temperatures triggered Wet Loose and Wet Slab Avalanches, with almost no freeze at upper elevations last night; expect similar activity today. Start and end your day early to avoid the increasing danger of wet avalanches. Signs you are out too late include your machine gouging deeply into wet snow, sinking through wet snow to your boot tops, and seeing rollerballs running from steep terrain. Pay attention to slopes you are traveling under. Small Loose Wet Avalanches starting in steep rocky terrain can trigger large Wet Slab Avalanches when they hit slopes below.”

4 4 2021 Satellite 1

Satellite shows partly cloudy skies over Colorado and an area of low pressure well out in the Pacific

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… Skies will be partly cloudy with fair weather Cu.  Highs temps will be mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Winds Monday afternoon will peak around 25mph.

Tuesday through Friday… We’ll continue to see lots of sun.  Look for little cotton-ball cumulus clouds to develop each afternoon.  Tuesday will be the windiest day of the week with peaks in the 30-35mph range. Winds will be much higher in the mountains with peaks reaching as high as 55mph.  It looks like we could be entering wind season with afternoon winds peaking in the 20-25mph range the rest of the week. Temps Tuesday will be 10 degrees cooler with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be 20-30.  Then we’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps 5-10 degrees above average by Friday.

In the long range, the models are staying consistent with a pattern change beginning Friday and the potential for showers Friday over the mountains. 

4 4 2021 E Precip

The ensemble model shows dry weather over most of Archuleta County through Thursday evening.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5672 / 194322-8 / 1945

I’ll have a big announcement later today.  Tomorrow I’ll share some information with you on why it is so important to wear sunscreen this time of the year.  Also, we’ll start a new weather contest tomorrow evening!  I’ll have the next weather post update early Tuesday morning as the dry front moves into the area.  Enjoy the day!

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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