Very spotty afternoon showers today

There were a few clouds over the mountains this morning – pic taken 4/2/2021

Friday – 2 Apr 2021 – 8:15am

Overall situation…

Yesterday’s highs were mostly in the mid to upper 50s and lows this morning were lower to upper 20s.

A weak and getting weaker trough will approach the area this afternoon. There is just enough moisture and instability to cause a few spotty showers or even a thunderstorm mainly over the mountains. Clouds building over the mountains and pleasant temps will remind us of summer!

Ridging will stay in control through at least Monday. Open up those windows and get outside – it’s going to be nice!

Record highs the next few days are 72 and 73. I expect the airfield to peak in the upper 60s, but some of you will flirt with those records.

Water vapor shows the weak system spinning over central Arizona. It will move east-northeast through the day and continue to weaken. It will add just enough moisture and instability to cause a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon.

My forecast…

Today… Skies will be partly cloudy. Watch for a few clouds to build into showers and maybe even a thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs will be lower to upper 60s and lows will be mid-20s to lower 30s.

The high resolution NAM forecast radar at 4pm shows very spotty showers over the region.

The high resolution NAM forecast cape at 4pm indicates just enough instability, anything in “the blue”, for isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm.

Tomorrow through Monday… Skies will be mostly clear. Highs temps will be mid-60s to low 70s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
54	71 / 1959	21	1 / 1975

My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Keena Carstensen says:

April 3, 2021 at 8:14 am

Zero precip at Jacobson Hill yesterday!

Reply
1. Shawn says:
  
  April 3, 2021 at 10:52 am
  
  I’m a little surprised. We got a few raindrops around 3:30pm. If you blinked, you might have missed them! Thanks for the report Keena!
  
  Reply

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