A time shift…

Snow showers over Pagosa Peak

3-22-21: 2pm Update: Our trough-closed low on the way, but taking a little longer to arrive…

Even though we haven’t seen much snow over the past 24 hours, that has not been the case to our north. Click here for some snow reports.

We are now surrounded by advisories and watches as of 3:30pm from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon:

Here is the advisory for Wolf Creek from Pueblo NWS:

Winter Storm Watch issued March 22 at 2:57PM MDT until March 24 at 6:00PM MDT by NWS Pueblo CO * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet County. * WHEN…From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

And here is the advisory for our nearby mountains from Grand Junction NWS:

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 22 at 2:43PM MDT until March 24 at 6:00PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO * WHAT…Snow expected above 10000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From noon Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Much of the snow could melt as it falls in the afternoon hours with greater impacts to roadways during the overnight and morning hours. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. A detailed map of the snowfall can be found at: www.weather.gov/gjt/winter.

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The latest watches and advisories for our area.

Our next trough-closed low will take a little longer getting its act together than was forecast yesterday. Now it looks like snow/rain won’t arrive until Tuesday afternoon and won’t move out until Wednesday afternoon. Because the best odds for snow will now be Tuesday night, there will be a chance for accumulation in the valley. For the mountains it will be all snow. Between now and then, we will continue to see a chance for snow and rain showers, especially in the mountains. High temperatures will be at their warmest today (mid 40’s) then trend downward the rest of the week under mostly cloudy skies. Lows will remain in the teens to low 20’s. We could see winds gusting to 30mph on Wednesday as the trough moves through.

500hv.conus
Our closed low-trough will move into Arizona on Tuesday, ramping up our snow odds by Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Screenshot 2021 03 22 131311
The latest NWS snowfall estimates through Wednesday.
Screenshot 2021 03 22 131337
The latest NWS liquid total estimates through Wednesday.

As our first storm moves through on Wednesday, hot on its heals will be our second trough. By Thursday afternoon, snow comes back into the picture and we can expect another round of rain/snow through mid day Friday. This second storm has the potential to be as wet, if not wetter than the first storm. I’ll get into totals tomorrow, but we could easily see a half an inch of liquid (3-5 inches of snow) for the valley and double that or more for the mountains.

My Forecast:

For the valley between now and Wednesday: 0.10-0.30 of liquid and or 1-3 inches of snow that could accumulate Tuesday night.

For the mountains between now and Wednesday: 10-15 inches of snow.

Average HighRecord High/YearAverage LowRecord Low/Year
5369/194017-9/1944
Pagosa Springs Climate Info for 3-22-21

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