Wet week ahead for Pagosa Springs

3-21-21: 3:30pm update: “Moisture is moisture…I don’t care how it falls from the sky!” Mark Langford

OK, I do need to add a disclaimer to my quote…large hail stones are not cool! I found that out in NW San Antonio, TX in 2016.

If you’re patient this week and don’t want all of our precipitation to fall at once, then I’ve got some good news…I think by next Sunday we will see around an inch of liquid measurement for the valley and easily double that for our mountain. For the valley it will fall as a rain/snow combo with not a lot of accumulation due to our springtime sun angle and temperatures in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. For the mountains, I see all snow this week, which is why their totals over the next seven days could hit 20-40 inches.

But let’s rewind our tape a little and go over the short term forecast from today through Wednesday. We will see a closed low develop between now and Tuesday which will bring in a SW flow, giving us our best short term chance for snow/rain between now and Wednesday. We will continue to see snow and rain showers off/on today and Monday, but odds are boosted on Tuesday-Wednesday.

500wh.conus 2
A closed low develops late Monday and gives us the best short term odds for snow on Tuesday.
Screenshot 2021 03 21 141301
Forecast snow totals between now and Wednesday.
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Forecast liquid totals for our area between now and Wednesday.
StormTotalSnow 1
The latest snowfall estimate from the NWS between today and Tuesday.

Our next storm arrives Wednesday evening and gives us even better chances for precipitation from Thursday-Saturday as seen on the latest EURO model run. I have also included the latest NAEFS 52 member model runs for Wolf Creek over the next 7 days. As you can see from the graphics, 20-40 inches of snow is possible for our ski area during that time!

My forecast:

For the valley between now and Wednesday: 0.10-0.30 of liquid and or 1-3 inches of snow that will not accumulate much.

For the mountains between now and Wednesday: 10-15 inches of snow.

Average HighRecord High/YearAverage LowRecord Low/Year
5168/199717-1/1917

-Mark Langford

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Best chance for heavier precipitation will be from Thursday-Saturday of this week.
Screenshot 2021 03 21 144400
This latest model run predicts 20-40 inches of snow may fall at Wolf Creek over the next 7 days.

3-21-21-9am Quick Update

Snow-rain mix in the valley this morning….

Depending on your location, most of us woke up to either snow or rain showers this morning as a cold front moved through our area, giving us our first round of what will be a wet week ahead!

Wolf Creek reports two inches of snow as of 6:30 this morning, but based on what the latest road and ski cams are showing, they have gotten more since that report. Down in the valley, temperatures have be mainly above freezing, so there has been little accumulation. At our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake, I found 0.07 of liquid and 1/10 of an inch of melting snow.

We’ll continue to see some off/on snow and rain showers throughout the day and some peeks of the sun. I’ll have a complete update later this afternoon with my thoughts for our upcoming week. Meanwhile, if you are heading up to the ski area, be careful as it will be snowing most of the day with winds gusting to 40mph.

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19 Responses

    1. Thank you Kristi! It’s so much better than we imagined at first. Thank you for following us! – Arleen

  1. So nice to find this in my “mailbox” this morning instead of searching Facebook. I look forward to and depend on your forecasts.

  2. So glad you’re up and running. Good to have local and accurate weather info. Jacobson Hill got 1” of snow. I don’t know how to measure the liquid amount though…

    1. Keena, Thank you for being one of our loyal followers! I’ll have a snow measuring seminar in the fall to go over snow fall, snow depth, and liquid equivalent. In the mean time, you can get a rain gauge as Mark suggested. We love your snow reports from Jacobson Hill!

    1. Thank you, Debbie! So very glad we were able to get you up & on the web page. We love your minimum temperature reports!

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