Breezy today – Chance for precip tonight and the rest of the week…

A big thanks to Jonathon and the rest of the Wolf Creek crew for taking care of us! Pic taken 3/19/2021 at the base of the Treasure Lift.

A big thanks to Jonathon and the rest of the Wolf Creek crew for taking care of us! Pic taken 3/19/2021 at the base of the Treasure Lift.

Saturday – 20 Mar 2021 – 9:15am

Overall situation…

This will be our last day of ridging and dry weather for a while.   

Sunday through next Saturday will be unsettled as a few systems move through the region.  The first two will be disorganized, lack moisture, and their track won’t favor us.  The last system is showing more promise. Wobbles in the storm track will result in more or less precip and changes to forecast timing but it’s good to see the storm track over our heads!

20 Mar 2021 am water vapor
Water vapor shows a weak moisture plume associated with the next trough to our west. The upper level pattern won’t change much the next week.

My forecast…

Today… Expect dry weather and patches of mid and high clouds.  Highs will be in the mid-50s to around 60 and lows will be 20-25. Winds will peak this afternoon around 30mph. Winds above timberline, including the top of Wolf Creek, could hit 50mph.

Tonight through Monday at midnight… The first system will move through the region.  Expect mostly cloudy skies and occasional precip.  The snow level will bounce between 8,000ft during the day to 6,500ft overnight resulting in a sloppy precip mix.  Temps during the day will warm into the 40s and dip into the 20s overnight.

Precip amounts:

– 0.10 to 0.25” liquid equivalent in the valley and 0-1” of snow

– 3 to 6” of snow above 9,000ft

20 Mar 2021 am NWS 72 hour snowfall
The NWS snowfall through Monday at 6am shows a dusting to a half inch in the valley and 6” up at Wolf Creek.

Tuesday through Wednesday evening…The second system will move through with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers. The snow level will continue to bounce between 8,000ft during the day to 6,500ft overnight resulting in a sloppy precip mix.  Highs will be 40-45 and lows will be upper teens to mid-20s.

Precip amounts:

– 0.05 to 0.15” liquid equivalent in the valley and 0-1” of snow

– 3 to 5” of snow above 9,000ft

Thursday…We’ll see a lull with fewer clouds and just a slight chance of showers, mostly over the mountains.

Thursday night through Saturday… The last system in the series is showing the most promise.  The details this far out are still questionable so Mark will tackle it in a couple of days. 

20 Mar 2021 am NBM snowfall
The NBM snowfall through next Sunday at 6am 5-8” in the valley and 20-30” in our mountains. This is potential snowfall for the next week. The amounts and timing are likely to change as the data gets better.
20 Mar 2021 am UoU WC snowfall
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall show a stair-step upward trend the next 7 days.  The trend looks good for snow this week!

Pagosa Springs historical weather data for today

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5168 / 199717-1 / 1917

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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7 Responses

  1. Our 24-hour stats just north of Turkey Springs: high temp 52, low temp 32, peak wind 35mph, 0.07” liquid, 0.1” snow

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