It’s showtime!

3-23-21: Noon update…

Despite the beautiful skies outside, our atmosphere is about to go through a major change over the next four days with winter returning to our area along with great odds for moisture, mostly in the form of snow.

Our closed low is hanging out in Vegas this afternoon (probably in one of the many casinos), but will be moving our direction over the next 24 hours and giving us a great chance for snow/rain as it does so. Right now the time frame for accumulating snow will be from late this afternoon through midday on Wednesday. Things should start breaking up by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. As we catch our breath from storm number one, storm number two (deep trough) moves in on Thursday afternoon and will be with us through Friday night and possibly Saturday. The second one has the potential to bring even more snow than the first storm.

Temperatures will drop to mainly the 30’s for highs after today through Friday with lows in the upper teens and lower 20’s. Winds will kick up tomorrow with gusts possibly over 30mph in the valley and 40mph in the mountains.

Screenshot 2021 03 23 112252
Here comes our low!
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The low will be located in Arizona by tomorrow.
download1
How much snow the latest GFS thinks we will get through Friday.
download Euro
How much snow the EURO model thinks we will get through Saturday.

Advisories and watches continue in effect for our surrounding mountains and Wolf Creek Pass through Wednesday evening. As of this post time, the town of Pagosa Springs is not in a watch or advisory.

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Current winter watches and advisories through Wednesday evening.

My Forecast:

For the valley between now and Wednesday: 0.10-0.30 of liquid and or 1-3 inches of snow that could accumulate tonight and tomorrow morning.

For the near mountain locations 8000-9000 feet: 2-4 inches of snow that could accumulate tonight and tomorrow morning.

For the mountains between now and Wednesday: 10-15 inches of snow.

For Thursday-Saturday I think you can easily repeat these totals and possibly add an extra 50%. I’ll have a more complete estimate on Wednesday.

Average HighRecord High/YearAverage LowRecord Low/Year
5273/194019-5/1952
Pagosa Springs Climate Info for 3-23-21

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