Another sunscreen day in Pagosa Country!

Barn and mountains under blue sky

Friday – 19 Mar 2021 – 8:45am

Overall situation…

Ridging will keep us dry and mostly sunny through Saturday. The only clouds I spotted this morning were over the mountains northwest of town.

Sunday through Friday will be unsettled as a couple of systems move through the region.  They’ll be disorganized, lack moisture, and their track won’t favor us.  It looks like an extended period of variable clouds and occasional light precip that won’t add up to much.  However, with an active pattern, there’s always the possibility that Mother Nature could bring us a surprise!

Water vapor indicates a little bit of moisture in the mid levels across the region, but it’s not resulting in many clouds. The jet stream (yellow arrows) is pushing moisture into central California. That will move into our region after midnight Saturday.
Water vapor indicates a little bit of moisture in the mid levels across the region, but it’s not resulting in many clouds.  The jet stream (yellow arrows) is pushing moisture into central California. That will move into our region after midnight Saturday.

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… Expect dry weather and lots of sun.  Highs will be in the lower to upper 50s and lows in the upper-teens to mid-20s. Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon.  Expect peak winds around 30mph. Have that sunscreen handy!

Saturday at midnight through Monday at midnight… The first system will move through the region.  Expect mostly cloudy skies and occasional precip.  The snow level will bounce around during the day between 7,000ft and 8,000ft resulting in a sloppy precip mix.  Temps during the day will warm into the 40s and dip into the 20s overnight.

Precip amounts:

– 0.10 to 0.25” liquid equivalent in the valley and 0-1” of snow

– 3 to 6” of snow above 9,000ft

The NBM liquid precip through Monday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.6” in our mountains.
The NBM liquid precip through Monday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.6” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall through Monday at 6am shows a dusting to a half inch in the valley and 3-5” in our nearby mountains.
The NWS snowfall through Monday at 6am shows a dusting to a half inch in the valley and 3-5” in our nearby mountains.

Tuesday through Friday… The pattern will stay active with periods of cloudy skies and occasional precip.  The details are still in doubt.  High temps will be around 5 degrees below average while lows will be around 5 degrees above average.

The NBM liquid precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.6” in the valley and up to 1.6” in our mountains. Note the precip bullseye in the Vail and Aspen areas. That’s indicative of an upper level west or northwest flow pattern which does not favor us.
The NBM liquid precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.6” in the valley and up to 1.6” in our mountains. Note the precip bullseye in the Vail and Aspen areas.  That’s indicative of an upper level west or northwest flow pattern which does not favor us.

Pagosa Spring historical data for 19 March

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5173 / 190716-4 / 1917

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Great one for our first post! The graphics are so beautiful on here! Looking forward to many, many years of creating informative, educational and fun posts for all our followers.

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