Glorious Spring weather in Pagosa Country!

Rio Grande Pyramid

Thursday – 18 Mar 2021 – 9:45am

Overall situation…

Ridging will keep us dry and mostly sunny through Saturday. 

Sunday through Friday will be unsettled as a couple of systems move through the region.  They’ll be disorganized, lack moisture, and their track won’t favor us.  It looks like an extended period of variable clouds and occasional light precip that won’t add up to much.  However, with an active pattern, there’s always the possibility that Mother Nature could bring us a surprise!

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… Expect dry weather and lots of sun.  Patchy fog in low lying areas is possible tonight.  Highs will be in the lower to upper 50s and lows in the mid-teens to low 20s. Enjoy the nice spring weather!

Early Sunday through Monday at midnight… The first system will move through the region.  Expect mostly cloudy skies and occasional precip.  The snow level will bounce around during the day between 7,000ft and 8,000ft resulting in a sloppy precip mix.  Temps during the day will warm into the 40s and dip into the 20s overnight.

Precip amounts:

– 0.10 to 0.25” liquid equivalent in the valley and 0-1” of snow

– 4 to 8” of snow above 9,000ft

The Euro liquid precip through Monday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.75” in our mountains.
The Euro liquid precip through Monday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.75” in our mountains.

Tuesday through Friday… The pattern will stay active with periods of cloudy skies and occasional precip.  The details are still in doubt.  High temps will be around 5 degrees below average while lows will be around 5 degrees above average.

The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 8-10” by Tuesday evening and around 16” by Thursday evening. Note that amounts at the end of the period vary from 4” to 45”. That means there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 8-10” by Tuesday evening and around 16” by Thursday evening. Note that amounts at the end of the period vary from 4” to 45”. That means there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.

Pagosa Springs climatology for 18 March

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5069 / 190716-10 / 1917

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. I know we need the rain/snow, but I’m not looking forward to working out in the rain this week.

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