UPDATE Tuesday – 16 Mar 2021 – 12:50pm
The first few showers are moving through Archuleta County now. We got a few snowflakes and winds to 25mph just north of Turkey Springs. Temps are currently in the upper 30s to mid-40s so we are going to see a mix of precip until colder air filters in.
Satellite and radar indicate the system is pretty active with decent convection. WeatherBug picked up lighting south of Cortez and near Montrose. Showers and possibly thunderstorms this afternoon can cause brief periods of heavy snow, rain, graupel, and gusty winds.
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern San Juan Mountains which includes Wolf Creek Pass for up to 6″ of snow valid until 9am tomorrow morning. ***
My forecast post below still looks good. Please see it for details.
I might do another quick post this afternoon if things get interesting.
– Shawn
End of post
Morning forecast post
Tuesday – 16 Mar 2021 – 8:10am
Overall situation…
We got a dusting of snow overnight north of Turkey Springs. Wolf Creek reported 2″ this morning.
The upper level low is in western Arizona now and will move through northern New Mexico later today. Ridging will then keep us dry Wednesday through much of Saturday. Then the next system will impact us Saturday night through Monday. It’s too early to get into details on that one.
My forecast…
Today… Clouds will increase through the morning. There’s a good chance for snowshowers, and even a possible thunderstorm this afternoon. The best chance for precip will be 2pm to midnight. The snow level will bounce around with “rainflakes” possible up to 7,500ft.
Clouds will clear overnight leading to patchy fog in the low lying areas. Highs will be upper 30s to low 40s and lows will be 5-15. Winds will peak around 25mph near showers.
Snow amounts:
– 0-2” in the valley. It will be heavy wet snow that will struggle to accumulate.
– 4-8” in the mountains
The Trinidad, Walsenburg, La Veta Pass areas will get hit pretty good this evening through tomorrow morning. Consider a different route if you’re heading to or coming back from the Front Range. See the graphic below.
Wednesday through most of Saturday…Partly cloudy skies and dry. Highs Wednesday will be mid to upper 40s and then lower to upper 50s the rest of the period.
Pagosa Springs Climatology
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 50 | 65 / 1967 | 15 | -13 / 1913 |
I’ll do a quick update later today.
– Shawn
