First showers moving through now

UPDATE Tuesday – 16 Mar 2021 – 12:50pm

The first few showers are moving through Archuleta County now.  We got a few snowflakes and winds to 25mph just north of Turkey Springs.  Temps are currently in the upper 30s to mid-40s so we are going to see a mix of precip until colder air filters in.

Satellite and radar indicate the system is pretty active with decent convection.  WeatherBug picked up lighting south of Cortez and near Montrose. Showers and possibly thunderstorms this afternoon can cause brief periods of heavy snow, rain, graupel, and gusty winds.

16 Mar 2021 pm IR satellite
Infrared satellite shows clouds increasing and getting more active in our area ahead of the low.
16 Mar 2021 pm radar
Radar is showing some of the showers but doesn’t pick up on everything in our area.

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern San Juan Mountains which includes Wolf Creek Pass for up to 6″ of snow valid until 9am tomorrow morning. ***

My forecast post below still looks good.  Please see it for details.

I might do another quick post this afternoon if things get interesting.

– Shawn

End of post


Morning forecast post

Tuesday – 16 Mar 2021 – 8:10am

Overall situation…

We got a dusting of snow overnight north of Turkey Springs. Wolf Creek reported 2″ this morning.

The upper level low is in western Arizona now and will move through northern New Mexico later today. Ridging will then keep us dry Wednesday through much of Saturday.  Then the next system will impact us Saturday night through Monday. It’s too early to get into details on that one.

16 Mar 2021 am Water vapor
Water vapor shows the leading edge of the clouds on our doorstep.  There is a nice band of clouds ahead of the trough in eastern Arizona and wrap-around clouds associated with the low.
16 Mar 2021 am Radar
Regional radar lines up nicely with satellite.  There is a band of precip ahead of the trough moving into eastern Arizona and wrap-around precip in southwest Utah.  Always keep in mind that spotty radar coverage does not show all of the precip in the Four Corners region.

My forecast…

Today… Clouds will increase through the morning.  There’s a good chance for snowshowers, and even a possible thunderstorm this afternoon. The best chance for precip will be 2pm to midnight.  The snow level will bounce around with “rainflakes” possible up to 7,500ft. 

Clouds will clear overnight leading to patchy fog in the low lying areas.  Highs will be upper 30s to low 40s and lows will be 5-15. Winds will peak around 25mph near showers.

Snow amounts:

– 0-2” in the valley. It will be heavy wet snow that will struggle to accumulate.

– 4-8” in the mountains

The Trinidad, Walsenburg, La Veta Pass areas will get hit pretty good this evening through tomorrow morning.  Consider a different route if you’re heading to or coming back from the Front Range.  See the graphic below.

16 Mar 2021 am NBM snowfall
The NBM snowfall model through tomorrow morning at 6am shows 0-2” across the valley and up to 8” in our mountains.  Note the “snow bullseye” in the Trinidad, Walsenburg, and Le Veta Pass area.

Wednesday through most of Saturday…Partly cloudy skies and dry.  Highs Wednesday will be mid to upper 40s and then lower to upper 50s the rest of the period.

Pagosa Springs Climatology

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5065 / 196715-13 / 1913

I’ll do a quick update later today.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon