Sunday – 28 Feb 2021 – 3:30pm
Pagosa Weather Snowpack and drought update
As of 28 February, snowpack across Colorado is around 85%. In our nearby basins, it’s 80%. (I’d prefer to use the map focused on Colorado, but it has not been updated in a couple of days.)
The snotel data for our specific area is a bit more encouraging. The Upper San Juan is at 89% and the Wolf Creek Summit is at 106% for this date. If no more snow fell, Wolf Creek Summit would finish with 73% of their seasonal snow and the Upper San Juan would finish with 71%. Thankfully I don’t think that will happen!
This week’s drought map indicates that Archuleta County ranges from “severe drought” along the eastern part of the county to “exceptional drought” towards Arboles. We must get above average precip to see an improvement.
Pagosa Weather February 2021 precip summary…
Percent of average precip – Much of Archuleta County was in the 75-100% range though the southwest part of the county didn’t fare as well with 50-75% of average.
Our CoCoRaHS observers ranged from 1.33” in Loma Linda south of Echo Canyon Reservoir to 2.0” for us here at Pagosa Weather just north of Turkey Springs. The average February precip is 1.42”.
CoCoRaHS observed snowfall for February ranged from to 16.2” near town to 24.6” for us here at Pagosa Weather just north of Turkey Springs. The average snowfall for February is 18.9”.
Wolf Creek started the month with 238″ YTD and reported 285″ YTD today to total 47″. That’s roughly 70% of their February average of 66.4″.
Pagosa Weather March outlook…
The official March outlooks indicate a chance for above average temps and a chance for below average precip.
The Euro ensemble 15 day outlook shows a more active pattern starting around the 10th. The GFS indicates a similar pattern.
My not-to-be-trusted outlook for March is below average precip the first week, average to slightly above average the middle of the month, and below average the last week.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
