Nice through Saturday and then unsettled next week

Wednesday – 17 Mar 2021 – 9:00am

Overall situation…

Around 2pm yesterday things got exciting as Uptown, Pagosa Lakes and the Aspen Springs areas got hit with thundersnow.  Occasional bands of showers moved through the rest of the afternoon.  Snow reports in the valley ranged from zero to 1”.  I was disappointed to see Wolf Creek report 0” this morning.  Based on road reports and web cams, it snowed up there, but apparently didn’t even add up to an inch – sad.

The low pressure system yesterday tracked right along I-40 through New Mexico.  I expected it to track a little farther north and give us more precip.  Heavy snow fell for periods from Fort Garland to Walsenburg to Trinidad and La Veta Pass was closed yesterday afternoon.  Somehow the Summit County ski resorts did pretty well.  Weather is weird!

Ridging will take over and keep us dry Wednesday through Saturday. 

Sunday through Wednesday will be unsettled as a couple of systems move through the region.  Right now I see disorganized and possibly split systems that don’t look impressive.  However, the models are fluctuating considerably and the details are in doubt.  I’ll do “first guess” precip amounts for the Sunday/Monday period tomorrow.

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… Expect dry weather and lots of sun.  Patchy fog in low lying areas is possible again tonight.  Highs today will be mid to upper 40s and lows tomorrow morning will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens.  For the rest of the week expect highs in the lower to upper 50s and lows in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Sunday through Wednesday… It will be unsettled with variable clouds and periods of precip.  Precip amounts don’t look impressive. High temps will be 5-10 degrees below average and lows will be around 5 degrees above average due to cloud cover.  I’ll dig more into the details on tomorrow’s post.

17 Mar 2021 am GFS precip
The GFS liquid precip through next Wednesday shows around 0.5” near town and 1.5” up at Wolf Creek.
17 Mar 2021 am Euro precip
The Euro liquid precip through next Wednesday is less optimistic with 0.1” near town and 0.4” up at Wolf Creek.

Pagosa Springs Climatology

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5067 / 197216-12 / 1917

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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