“I’ll be back!” …winter.

Monday – 8 Mar 2021 – 4:30pm

Pagosa Springs Climatology

The average high for this date is 48 and the record high of 66 occurred in 1972. The average low is 11 and the record is -12 which occurred in 1961.

And so it begins…

A few of us saw some floating flakes this morning but for the most part, snow was confined to our nearby mountains as Wolf Creek Ski area reported 2 inches of fresh powder…as I forecast yesterday. We will have one more spring-like day on Tuesday, but by the afternoon winter will charge back into CO with gusty winds exceeding 30mph in the valley and over 40mph in the mountains as a cold front moves through during the night. By Wednesday, our 50 degree highs will have dropped to the 30’s and our potential snow conveyor belt in the form of a cutoff low in southern California will begin sending moisture into our area. While we could see some snow on Wednesday, our best odds for snow will be Thursday-Sunday, with the heaviest potential for snow on Saturday as the low moves over the four corners. By Sunday, the low will be to our east, but wrap-around moisture will continue to send us some snow showers. Lows throughout the period will drop into the teens and highs will stay in the 30’s.

500wh.conus 3 8
Where the cut-off low will be on Friday
500wh.conus 3 8 Sat
Where the cut-off low will be on Saturday
Wolf Creek 3 8
Multi-model snowfall runs for Wolf Creek Pass
GFS 3 8 21
The latest snow forecast from the GFS model. Check out those totals along the front range!

The really creepy part of this storm will be its impact on the front range. This has the potential to paralyze Denver and surrounding cities with 3-5 feet of snow! Just as the arctic blast from last month crippled most of Texas, these snow totals for the front range could wreak as much havoc for eastern Colorado.

Snow totals will rely heavily on the track of the cutoff low and how quickly it moves east. This far out there are still quite a few “ifs ands or buts” in regard to this storm.

For now, here is what I’m forecasting for our snow totals from Wednesday-Sunday:

The valley: 4-8 inches

Near the mountains: 6-12 inches

Our mountains: 15-25 inches

-Mark Langford

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