Let’s focus on the short term…

Pagosa Springs Climatology

The average high for this date is 49 and the record high of 67 occurred in 1972. The average low is 13 and the record is -10 which occurred in 1961.

Snow, wind and and colder temps in the short term…

Future Low
Our big low is moving SE along the Pacific coast and will eventually end up in southern CA before moving east towards us.

Our low pressure just off the NW Pacific coast is already starting to impact our surface winds as a 140 knot jet stream rounds the base of the trough through the desert SW.

Front 1
A surface front moves through on Wednesday with gusty winds over 30mph.

A surface front moves in on Wednesday, along with gusty winds over 30mph in the valley and over 40mph in the mountains. Snow chances start tonight and will be with us through Sunday.

3 day snow
NWS Snowfall predicted totals through Friday.

As I mentioned yesterday, the greatest odds for heavier snow will be Friday night through Saturday as the future cutoff low approaches us from the west. As of this post, the models are still trying to get a handle on speed, location and strength of the low. The GFS model continues to be the outlier in regard to strength of the low, but it has been very consistent with forecasting some incredible snow totals for the front range as illustrated in yesterday’s graphics. Fortunately, the GFS has lowered snow totals a bit, but there remains the chance for high snow totals for that area this weekend as the low tracks to our east.

500wh.conus
Where our cutoff low will be located at midnight on Saturday morning. This is the location that will give us the best odds for snow.

As for us, we will actually be on the drier side of this system if it continues to track as the latest model runs are predicting. That doesn’t mean we won’t get snow, but compared to most of the state, ours will seem little in comparison.

I have included three of the major model runs for snowfall totals through Monday morning for CO. Pagosa Springs is where the red dot is (Pivotal Weather does not include us) and I have circled the range of snow forecast depending on where you live in town. As you can see, the GFS is still predicting very high totals, but even the EURO and NWS runs are still thinking this will be a big storm in the front range. As a reminder, these are current model runs and do not necessarily reflect what the true totals will be. As we get closer to the weekend, I expect more changes in these models.

GFS
The latest GFS model continues to predict very high snow totals for the front range. This is the only model forecasting this much snow at the present time.
EURO
Here is how much snow the EURO is forecasting through Monday.
NWS Blend
Here is how much snow the NWS Blend of Models is forecasting through Monday.

As of today here is what I’m forecasting for our snow totals from Wednesday-Sunday:

The valley: 4-8 inches

Near the mountains: 6-12 inches

Our mountains: 15-25 inches

-Mark Langford


		

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