Sunday – 7 Mar 2021 – 4:00pm
Pagosa Springs Climatology
The average high for this date is 46 and the record high of 66 occurred in 1972. The average low is 11 and the record is -18 which occurred in 1917.
The battle of the seasons is on…
Transitional months are always quite entertaining weather wise. In the southern plains its the beginning of severe storm season, in the mountains its the beginning of snow vs rain. This week will be a perfect example of why March is considered a transitional month.
As we start the week, we will see above normal temperatures (like today’s high in the 50’s) though Tuesday, then by Wednesday, after a frontal passage, high temps will drop back into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. There will be a shortwave moving through on Monday, giving us a tiny chance for precipitation in the form of showers or snow showers in the valley and 0-3 inches in the mountains. On Tuesday, as the cold front approaches, winds will kick up and we could see SW wind gusts exceed 30 mph in the valley and 40mph in the mountains.
By Wednesday colder air moves in behind a frontal boundary and at the same time a cutoff low forms off the west coast and starts moving SE. Depending on how it sets up, it could activate our snow conveyor belt, giving us some decent snow totals from Thursday-Sunday. I’d like to see another day of model info before predicting how much this storm will produce but I’m feeling very optimistic!