Friday – 5 Mar 2021 – 5:15pm
Pagosa Springs climatology…
The average high for this date is 43 and the record high of 62 occurred in 1972. The average low is 13 and the record is -21 which occurred in 1966.
Overall situation…
Upper level ridging will build over the region and give us more fantastic spring weather. The ridge will move through tomorrow morning which will allow a few more clouds to move through during the weekend, but we’ll stay dry.
The forecast models continue to fluctuate considerably next week. We’ll be between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west with limited moisture and limited storm energy. This will result in a “messy” pattern with periods of cloudiness and a chance for periods of light precip. I don’t see decent storm energy and moisture until the main system tries to move through sometime between Friday and Sunday. Check out the graphics below for a better explanation.
My forecast…
Tonight through Monday… Expect mostly sunny skies with occasional patches of high clouds and pleasant spring temps with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows 5-20.
Tuesday through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and a chance for periods of light precip. Highs will be upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 10-20.
Friday night through Sunday… We might have a decent system, but it’s too early to trust the forecast models.
Unless something pops up, Mark will do the next post on Sunday.
– Shawn
