Enjoy the beautiful spring weather!

Friday – 5 Mar 2021 – 5:15pm

Pagosa Springs climatology…

The average high for this date is 43 and the record high of 62 occurred in 1972. The average low is 13 and the record is -21 which occurred in 1966.

Overall situation…

Upper level ridging will build over the region and give us more fantastic spring weather.  The ridge will move through tomorrow morning which will allow a few more clouds to move through during the weekend, but we’ll stay dry.

The forecast models continue to fluctuate considerably next week.  We’ll be between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west with limited moisture and limited storm energy.  This will result in a “messy” pattern with periods of cloudiness and a chance for periods of light precip.  I don’t see decent storm energy and moisture until the main system tries to move through sometime between Friday and Sunday.  Check out the graphics below for a better explanation.

My forecast…

Tonight through Monday… Expect mostly sunny skies with occasional patches of high clouds and pleasant spring temps with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows 5-20.

Tuesday through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and a chance for periods of light precip.  Highs will be upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 10-20.

Friday night through Sunday… We might have a decent system, but it’s too early to trust the forecast models.

Unless something pops up, Mark will do the next post on Sunday.

– Shawn

5 Mar 2021 pm Euro 500mb 3 10 00z
Euro 500mb anomaly valid on Tuesday at 5pm.  500mb is at roughly 18,000ft.  The “warm” colors indicate upper level ridging while the “cool” colors indicate upper level troughing.  Here we are in the middle between the two.  The upper level flow is southwest which usually advects moisture into the region, but there is hardly any storm energy to turn that moisture into precip.
5 Mar 2021 pm Euro 500mb 3 14 00z
Euro 500mb anomaly valid next Saturday at 5pm.  500mb is at roughly 18,000ft.  The “warm” colors indicate upper level ridging while the “cool” colors indicate upper level troughing.  Now the low is just to our west, and though it has weakened quite a bit, there should be enough moisture and upper level dynamics to give us some precip.  The high to the north concerns me.  An upper level “high over low” is called a Rex Block which usually results in a blocked weather pattern.  This is something that forecast models struggle with and that’s occurring with the models now.  Bottom line… I don’t have much confidence in the forecast next week.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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