Clearing tonight – unsettled next week…

Thursday – 4 Mar 2021 – 2:30pm

Pagosa Springs climatology…

The average high for this date is 43 and the record high of 63 occurred in 1986. The average low is 12 and the record is -25 which occurred in 1966.

Overall situation…

Snowfall reports were mostly in the 1-4” range this morning.  Wolf Creek ended up with 11”.

Upper level ridging will build over the region and give us another fantastic spring day tomorrow.  The ridge will move through before sunrise Saturday which will allow a few more clouds to move through during the weekend, but I think we’ll stay dry.

Starting Monday night, the weather pattern will be unsettled through at least Friday.  We’ll have a chance for precip nearly every day, but the systems aren’t too impressive.  The models continue to fluctuate on the details so my forecast confidence is low.

My forecast…

Tonight… Showers will end by sunset and clouds will clear by midnight.  Lows will be 5-15. Patchy fog is possible in low lying areas tomorrow morning.

Friday through Monday… Expect mostly sunny skies and warm pleasant spring temps with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows 5-20.  Our new snow will be long gone by tomorrow afternoon – It’s yo-yo season in Colorado!

Monday night through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds and periods of mostly light precip.  Highs will be upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 10-20.

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

4 Mar 2021 pm Water vapor
Water vapor shows the low spinning over southeast Utah and it’s weakening pretty rapidly.  The main low is now moving towards southeast Colorado.  Showers are lingering over our area this afternoon.
4 Mar 2021 pm WPC 7 day precip
The WPC 7-day blended model for liquid precip shows 0.10” to 0.50” in the valley and up to 1.50” along the eastern Divide.
4 Mar 2021 pm UoU Wolf Creek snowfall
The University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek shows a slow steady upward trend for snow starting Tuesday morning.  During that period the GFS expects about 10” of snow while the Canadian model expects about 6”.

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Quick snow update…

Thursday – 4 Mar 2021 – 7:00am

How much snow did you get?

I got 3-4” just north of Turkey Springs.  Area web cams indicate 1-3” of slushy snow fell downtown, Putt Hill, and the airfield. Wolf Creek reported 7” of new snow this morning.

Roads through town look mostly wet, but watch for those slick spots.  Wolf Creek Pass is snowpacked.

*** There is a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains for an additional 2-5″ of snow with locally higher amounts valid until 5pm today. ***

As of 7am, we’re in a dry slot, but there are a few showers in the area. Another band of showers will move through between 10am and 1pm and then spotty showers will linger through the afternoon, especially over the mountains.

Another inch of snow is possible in the valley, but it will be spotty.  Temps will warm to the mid-30s to low 40s and snow will turn to “rainflakes” by noon.  There is also a very slight chance for a thunderstorm. Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.

Up at Wolf Creek, they could get another 3-5” of snow.  Along the top, high temps will be in the low 20s and winds will peak around 35mph.

I’ll do a more thorough post later today.

– Shawn

4 Mar 2021 am IR satellite
Infrared satellite shows the low in central UT and it’s not moving much this morning.  Another band of showers is to our west and that will move through around noon.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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