Pagosa Springs climatology…
The average high for this date is 44 and the record high of 62 occurred in 1986. The average low is 13 and the record is -18 which occurred in 1916.
Overall situation…
The system is on track to bring us snow tonight. It’s hard to believe after such a fantastic day!
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains for 5-10″ of snow with locally higher amounts valid 11pm this evening to 5pm tomorrow. ***
Then a weak system is possible Saturday night/Sunday. It will lack moisture and stay to our north so I expect very little from it.
Starting Monday night, the weather pattern will be unsettled through at least Friday. We’ll have a chance for precip nearly every day, but the systems aren’t too impressive. The models continue to fluctuate on the details.
My forecast…
Tonight to Thursday evening… Expect more clouds and precip. The best chance for snow is after midnight to noon on Thursday. Showers will linger until around sunset especially over the mountains. The snow level by late Thursday morning will flirt with 8,000ft so “rainflakes” or wet hard-to-accumulate snow is possible in the afternoon. CAPEs, a measure of instability, indicate potential for thundersnow – fun stuff!
High temps will be mid-30s to low 40s. It will be warm enough Thursday afternoon that we might not have to shovel snow! Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.
Precip amounts:
0.25 to 0.6” liquid and 2-4” of snow below 7,500ft and 3-6” above 7,500ft
~1.0” of liquid and 8-12” of snow in the mountains
Friday and Saturday… Mostly sunny and warm with highs 50-55 and lows 5-20. Snow that falls on Thursday will be nearly gone by Friday afternoon – It’s yo-yo season in Colorado!
Saturday night/Sunday… There will be a few more clouds and spotty mountain snowshowers. A few lucky spots in the mountains could eke out an inch of snow, but I hardly expect anything from this system.
I’ll do quick post first thing tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
