Pagosa Springs Climatology…
The average high for this date is 45 and the record high of 60 occurred in 1986. The average low is 12 and the record is -15 which occurred in 1913.
Overall situation…
Things are lining up nicely for the system tomorrow night and Thursday.
Then a weak system is possible Saturday night/Sunday. It will lack moisture and stay to our north so I expect very little from it.
A decent system is possible Monday night/Tuesday. The models continue to slide this system forward and backward 12 hours and can’t decide on the track and strength. At this point forecast confidence in the details is low.
My forecast…
Tonight through Wednesday evening… Skies will be mostly clear until tomorrow evening. Lows tonight will be 0-15 and highs tomorrow will be 50-55.
Wednesday night to Thursday evening… Expect more clouds and precip. The best chance for snow is after midnight to noon on Thursday. Showers will linger until around sunset especially over the mountains. The snow level by late Thursday morning will flirt with 8,000ft so “rainflakes” or wet hard-to-accumulate snow is possible in the afternoon. CAPEs, a measure of instability, indicate potential for thundersnow – fun stuff!
High temps will be upper 30s to low 40s. It will be warm enough Thursday afternoon that we might not have to shovel snow! Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.
Precip amounts:
0.3 to 0.6” liquid and 2-4” of snow below 7,500ft and 3-6” above 7,500ft
~1.0” of liquid and 8-12” of snow in the mountains
Friday and Saturday… Mostly sunny and warm with highs 50-55 and lows 5-20. Snow that falls on Thursday will be nearly gone by Friday afternoon – It’s yo-yo season in Colorado!
Saturday night/Sunday… There will be a few more clouds and spotty mountain snowshowers. A few lucky spots could eke out an inch of snow, but I hardly expect anything from this system.
My next post will be tomorrow evening.
– Shawn
