Saturday – 30 Jan 2021 – 10:30am
January 2021 Pagosa Weather precipitation summary
Estimated liquid equivalent precipitation for January ranged from 0.5”-1” in the western part of the county to 3-4” along the Divide in the eastern part of the county. (Note: This data is derived from multiple sources.)
Our CoCoRaHS observers measured 1-2” in the Pagosa Springs area. The average January precip is 1.97” so much of the county had below average precip. CoCoRaHS observed snowfall for January ranged from to 20-33”. The average snowfall for January is 26.4”.
Wolf Creek started the month with 164″ YTD and reported 238″ YTD today to total 74″. That’s very close to their January average of 73.4″.
Snowpack update
As of 30 January, snowpack across Colorado is around 80%. In our nearby basins, it’s 82%.
Snotel Data
As of 30 January, the snotel data for our specific area is a bit more encouraging. The Upper San Juan is at 94% and the Wolf Creek Summit is at 104%.
Drought Update
This week’s drought map indicates that Archuleta County ranges from “severe drought” along the eastern Divide to “exceptional drought” in the western part of the county. We must get above average precip to see an improvement. February outlook…The long range models indicate that the first part of the month could be active and then less active the second part of the month. I see lots of uncertainty in the long range models.
NWS Outlook
The official February outlooks indicate a chance for above average temps and a chance for below average precip.
Long Range Euro Snow Outlook
This Euro ensemble 45 day outlook shows 25” of snow for Pagosa Springs by 1 March. However, I look more at trends than specifics. The trend on this product is fairly active the first week, a lull in the middle of the month, and then a slow steady rise towards the end of the month. The February average snowfall is 18.9” so this product is optimistic, but I am skeptical. Reminder… long range models and outlooks are notoriously unreliable. (Note: I look at a bunch of data and do not just rely on a single product.)
My next forecast post will be later today.
– Shawn
