Scattered storms into Monday night…

Lots of clouds over the mountains. Let’s hope those clouds drop some rain! – pic taken 8/30/2026

Sunday – 30 Aug 2026 – 6:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 86, Low: 48, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 18-23%

Saturday: High: 79, Low: 53, Peak wind: 33mph, Afternoon humidity: 29-34%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	91 / 1990	42	25 / 1956

Precipitation summary… A few lucky folks got just enough rain to wet the ground yesterday, but most of the country stayed dry.

Current satellite and radar…

Satellite and lightning loop 4:36pm to 5:36pm Sunday – Monsoon moisture is streaming into the Four Corners area. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is still to our west but is slowly moving east.

*Radar at 5:48pm Sunday – It’s quiet over Archuleta County. Individual storms are moving towards the northeast while the whole pattern shifts slowly towards the east.*

Forecast highlights…

*** It’s been dry, warm, and breezy. Fire danger remains high. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Scattered storms into early Tuesday morning. Mostly dry with breezy afternoons Tuesday through Friday. Scattered storms next weekend. ***

Rest of Sunday into early Tuesday morning… Monsoon moisture and instability are moving into the area from the southwest.

As of dinnertime Sunday, most of the activity is to our west, but it will slowly move east. Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is Monday afternoon into late Monday evening.

Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning over small areas.

Tuesday through Friday… A low-pressure system impacting the Pacific NW will push the monsoon moisture plume to our east. We will be mostly dry and sunny with breezy afternoons.

Next weekend… The high will strengthen over the central plains and help push some monsoon moisture and instability back into our area. It’s a coin toss for you to get rain on your head each afternoon and evening.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Monday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Tuesday through Friday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Next weekend highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Thursday through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

*NBM precip to next Sunday evening (6 Sep) shows 0.14” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains. This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably.*

6 Sep to 14 Sep… The subtropical high is expected to stay to our east through 9 Sep and will bring us a weak monsoon pattern. After that, the forecast models are all over the place. The models indicate moisture and instability sticking with us, but I’m skeptical.

*Euro ensemble precip to 14 Sep shows 1.38” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have bounced around a bit over the last few days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 14 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It indicates scattered showers into early Tuesday morning and then dry Tuesday through Friday. The rest of the period wants to be active. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 14 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It indicates scattered showers into early Tuesday morning and then dry Tuesday through Friday. The rest of the period wants to be active.*

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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