Disappointing for most of us…

One of my favorite views along Piedra Road – pic taken 8/13/2026

Thursday – 13 Aug 2026 – 4:20pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 89, Low: 51, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 18-22%

Wednesday: High: 85, Low: 50, Peak wind: 28mph, Afternoon humidity: 20-24%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	89 / 1996	45	26 / 1932

Precipitation summary… A few lucky folks got a soaking on Tuesday, but it’s been disappointing for most of us.

12 Aug 2026 am CoCoRaHS 24hr precip — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Wednesday morning ranged from zero to 0.96”. Most folks reported less than 0.10”. A couple of “slow movers” dropped heavy rain over small areas.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Thursday morning ranged from zero to 0.15”. Most locations hardly got anything. La Plata County did better.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – The high is finally to our east. We finally have the moisture. BUT it’s stable – ugh.*

*Radar at 4pm Thursday – It’s mostly stable over the Four Corners area with just a few weak, spotty showers. Showers are moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** There will be hit and miss storms most afternoons and evenings. Saturday and Sunday there will be a lull with less activity. Do your rain dances! ***

Rest of Thursday through next Thursday… The subtropical high is finally to our east – where we want it! However…

Moisture is high today and tomorrow, but it’s more stable than I was expecting. Just like the last few days, a few lucky folks will get drenched while much of the county hardly gets anything.

This weekend, moisture and instability will decrease. A spotty storm or two is possible, mostly over the mountains.

Next week moisture and instability tick back up leading to a few more storms each afternoon and evening.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be near 50 to the mid 50s.

Friday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be near 50 to the high 50s.

Saturday through next Thursday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the in high 40s to the mid 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*Euro precip to next Thursday evening (20 Aug) shows 0.26” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains. Precip amounts have trended significantly down.*

20 Aug to 28 Aug… The forecast models can’t agree for this time period. Some keep the high to our east, where want it, while others keep it closer to the Four Corners, where we don’t want it. I think we will see spotty storms each afternoon and evening, but it doesn’t look impressive.

Euro ensemble precip to 28 Aug shows 1.42” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have trended down over the last two days. — *Euro ensemble precip to 28 Aug shows 1.42” in the Pagosa area.*
*Forecast precip amounts have trended down over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 28 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s active today and then there’s a lull with less activity through the weekend. It’s a little more active through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 28 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s active today and then there’s a lull with less activity through the weekend. It’s a little more active through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Saturday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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