Spotty showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow – mostly dry the rest of the week…

Rocky Mountain penstemon is one of my favorites! – pic taken 6/14/2026

Rocky Mountain penstemon is one of my favorites! – pic taken 6/14/2026

Sunday – 14 Jun 2026 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 83, Low: 40, Peak wind: 33mph, Afternoon humidity: 10-12%

Friday: High: 83, Low: 40, Peak wind: 30mph, Afternoon humidity: 11-13%

Saturday: High: 81, Low: 41, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 14-16%

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7890 / 19473523 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A couple of folks reported 0.01” and 0.02” of rain, but most of the county has remained dry.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop 2:26pm to 3:21pm Sunday – An influx of moisture and instability is kicking up scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Archuleta County is in a dry spot as I type, but another round is possible Sunday evening.
Water vapor satellite loop 2:26pm to 3:21pm Sunday – An influx of moisture and instability is kicking up scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Archuleta County is in a dry spot as I type, but another round is possible Sunday evening.
Radar at 3:30pm Sunday – A band of scattered showers moved through parts of Archuleta County and is now to the east. We are currently in a lull. Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the east.
Radar at 3:30pm Sunday – A band of scattered showers moved through parts of Archuleta County and is now to the east. We are currently in a lull. Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the east.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.  ***

*** Chance for “dry lightning” Sunday and Monday. Keep an eye out for new fires. ***

*** Breezy afternoons, mostly dry, and warm for much of the next two weeks. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Rest of Sunday through Monday… A little influx of moisture and instability will help kick up a few isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Tuesday and Wednesday… A ridge will build to our west. Upper-level flow out of the northwest will be stable, drier, and warm.

Thursday through next Sunday… Weak moisture and weak instability will lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon, but I think most of us will stay dry.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Monday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the high 40s.

Tuesday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and next Sunday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Winds…

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near showers or thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Thursday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Friday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Saturday and next Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

NBM precip to late next Sunday evening shows 0.09” near Pagosa Springs. Most of this is from spotty showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.
NBM precip to late next Sunday evening shows 0.09” near Pagosa Springs. Most of this is from spotty showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.

21 Jun to 29 Jun… The subtropical high will try to set up to our south. We will have weak moisture and weak instability that will kick up an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day, but I expect most of us to stay dry and warm.

Euro ensemble precip to 29 Jun shows 0.54 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended slightly up.
Euro ensemble precip to 29 Jun shows 0.54 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up slightly.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 29 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. Our best chance for precip is today and then the chance decreases tomorrow. It’s dry Tuesday through Thursday morning. Then there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons, but I’m skeptical. It’s dry next Sunday and Monday and then the models hint it will get more active, but they aren’t reliable.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 29 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
Our best chance for precip is today and then the chance decreases tomorrow. It’s dry Tuesday through Thursday morning. Then there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons, but I’m skeptical. It’s dry next Sunday and Monday and then the models hint it will get more active, but they aren’t reliable.

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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