Critical fire weather through Friday – scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday…

RED FLAG WARNINGS Thursday and Friday

Thursday – 11 Jun 2026 – 3:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 82, Low: 45, Peak wind: 44mph, Afternoon humidity: 7-11%

Wednesday: High: 81, Low: 42, Peak wind: 33mph, Afternoon humidity: 9-12%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
77	94 / 1946	35	18 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got a little rain on Tuesday. Precip amounts were mostly in the 0.01” to 0.07” range.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The jet stream will push a little farther north this weekend which will allow some moisture to move in from the south. Moisture will peak in area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. — Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The jet stream will push a little farther north this weekend which will allow some moisture to move in from the south. Moisture will peak in our area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Low humidity, gusty winds, and drying fuels are leading to critical fire conditions. RED FLAG WARNINGS today and Friday. ***

*** Slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm Saturday and Monday. Better chance on Sunday. Precip amounts will be light and spotty. ***

*** Chance for “dry lightning” Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Keep an eye out for new fires. ***

*** Breezy afternoons, mostly dry, and warm for much of the next two weeks. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Rest of Thursday through Friday… The ridge will be to our south while the trough remains to the north. Upper-level flow out of the west will keep our afternoon winds breezy and keep us dry and warm.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… A little influx of moisture and instability will help kick up a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain is on Sunday. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday… A ridge will build to our west. Upper-level flow out of the northwest will be stable, drier, and warm.

*** Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average, afternoon humidity will be in the low teens, and afternoon winds will gust to around 25mph. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the high 30s to the high 40s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Monday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the high 30 to the high 40s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Winds…

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Saturday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Monday through next Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

NBM precip to late next Thursday evening shows 0.11” near Pagosa Springs. Most of this is from scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. — *NBM precip to late next Thursday evening shows 0.11” near Pagosa Springs.*
*Most of this is from scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.*

18 Jun to 26 Jun… The subtropical high will try to set up to our south. That puts us on the dry, stable side of the high. I expect us to be mostly dry and warm.

Euro ensemble precip to 24 Jun shows 0.31 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have bouncing around. — *Euro ensemble precip to 24 Jun shows 0.31 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have been bouncing around.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 26 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through Saturday morning and then there’s a slight chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon. There’s a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Monday there’s just a slight chance. It’s dry Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday. Next Friday and Saturday there’s a slight chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms. Then it’s mostly dry through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 26 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through Saturday morning and then there’s a slight chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon. There’s a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Monday there’s just a slight chance. It’s dry Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday. Next Friday and Saturday there’s a slight chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms. Then it’s mostly dry through the rest of the period.

The next post will be either Saturday or Sunday afternoon. We are spending time with family.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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