Wet Tuesday night into early Wednesday evening …

I had a fantastic flight with Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures!(LINK to Facebook page and LINK to web page) – pic was taken 3/28/2026

I had a fantastic flight with Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures! (LINK to Facebook page and LINK to web page) – pic was taken 3/28/2026

Sunday – 29 Mar 2026 – 3:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 69*, Low: 34, Peak wind: 28mph

Saturday: High: 65, Low: 28, Peak wind: 22mph

* Tied the record high. *

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5172 / 198619-5 / 1975

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The high has shifted east over the Gulf but the ridge is still in control over our region. There are a lot of clouds moving south to north over AZ but there is no precip with them. The low well off the coast will be our Wednesday storm.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow.
The high has shifted east over the Gulf but the ridge is still in control over our region. There are a lot of clouds moving south to north over AZ but there is no precip with them. The low well off the coast will be our Wednesday storm.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Slight chance for a spotty shower Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** Valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Expect winter driving conditions in the mountains. ***

*** Dry through next weekend. ***

Forecast details…

Monday into Tuesday afternoon… Marginal instability could kick up a spotty shower or two each afternoon. Precip amounts will be light.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening… A cold front will move through with a decent batch of moisture. Our best chance for valley rain and mountain snow is Tuesday night into early Wednesday evening.

Snow levels…

Monday afternoon around 10,800ft

Tuesday morning around 10,000ft

Wednesday morning around 9,000ft

Wednesday evening around 8,600ft

Precip amounts…

Mountains above 9,500ft: 8-12” of snow

Pagosa Springs area: 0.50” to 0.70” of rain

Thursday through next weekend… Thursday there could be a few residual spotty showers over the mountains as the system clears out. Precip amounts will be low.

Friday a trough will move through northern Colorado and kick up our winds, but the moisture will stay to our north.

A weak ridge will build over the region next weekend and keep us dry.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Monday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s. Thursday night lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s. Friday and Saturday night lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.

Next Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.

Winds…

Monday and Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-45mph in the high country.

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-45mph in the high country.

Saturday and next Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

NBM precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.65” in the Pagosa Springs area and up to 1.3” in our mountains. Precip amounts have trended up slightly.
NBM precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.65” in the Pagosa Springs area and up to 1.3” in our mountains. Precip amounts have trended up slightly.
NBM snowfall to late Wednesday evening shows none in the Pagosa Springs area and 8-12” near Wolf Creek.
NBM snowfall to late Wednesday evening shows none in the Pagosa Springs area and 8-12” near Wolf Creek.

5 Apr to 13 Apr… The forecast models are all over the place. I don’t see anything to get excited about.

Euro ensemble precip to 13 Apr shows 1.83” in the Pagosa area. This model shows an increasing trend while other models aren’t as optimistic.
Euro ensemble precip to 13 Apr shows 1.83” in the Pagosa area.
This model shows an increasing trend while other models aren’t as optimistic.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 13 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. This model expects it to stay dry through Monday morning. There’s a chance for light precip Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening and then our best chance for precip is Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. There’s another dry period through next weekend. Then the weather pattern is disorganized through the rest of the period.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 13 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
This model expects it to stay dry through Monday morning. There’s a chance for light precip Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening and then our best chance for precip is Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. There’s another dry period through next weekend. Then the weather pattern is disorganized through the rest of the period.
Euro ensemble 15-day total snow for Wolf Creek Apr shows 13-14” for the Wednesday storm and then another 5-6” at the end of the period. Other models are not this optimistic.
Euro ensemble 15-day total snow for Wolf Creek shows 13-14” for the Wednesday storm and then another 5-6” at the end of the period. Other models are not this optimistic.

Unless there’s a significant change to the forecast, the next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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