And now we’ll be dry for a while…

Many of us woke up to a winter wonderland this morning! – Pic taken by Tiffany E. on 1/9/2026

Friday – 9 Jan 2026 – 1:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 42, Low: 21, Peak Wind: 7mph

Thursday: High: 34, Low: 26, Peak Wind: 21mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
37	59 / 1956	1	-21 / 1912

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported another 3” of snow for a storm total of 8”.

The low tracked just to our south last night. This favored our friends in the Farmington, Aztec, Bloomfield, and Arboles areas. Much of Archuleta County was in my 1-3” range, but there was a surprise 4-6” bullseye along highway 160 through the middle part of the county.

Thanks so much for everyone’s snow reports and pictures!

CoCoRaHS snow reports range from 1” to 6.4”. The 4-6” bullseye along 160 through central Archuleta County was a surprise. — *CoCoRaHS snow reports range from 1” to 6.4”.*
*The 4-6” bullseye along highway 160 through central Archuleta County was a surprise.*

Snowpack in our area is in rough shape. Upper San Juan watershed is at 54%, Piedra is at 59%, and the Animas is at 49%. *Sadly snowpack will get worse over the next 10-14 days.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop around noon on Friday – The low is spinning near the OK panhandle and moving northeast. The eastern part of Archuleta County along the Divide is still on the far west side of the storm. Scattered snowshowers are possible in that area later today, but most of Archuleta County will stay dry.

Radar around 12:30pm Friday – Radar doesn’t show anything in our area, but I think the eastern Divide could get a little active this afternoon. Snowshowers are hanging on over parts of the I-25 corridor. — *Radar around 12:30pm Friday – Radar doesn’t show anything in our area, but I think the eastern Divide could get a little active this afternoon.*
*Snowshowers are persisting over parts of the I-25 corridor.*

Forecast highlights…

*** And now we’ll have lots of blue sky and will be dry for a while. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Friday… A few scattered snowshowers are possible along the eastern Divide and into the Chama area later this afternoon and into the evening. Those areas could get another 1” of snow, but the rest of the Pagosa area will stay dry.

Saturday and through next week… A Rex block will set up over much of the west US. We’ll have lots of sun, light winds, and gradual warming.

Temps…

Friday night lows will mostly be near zero to the low teens. The cold spots will drop below zero.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to the low teens.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.

Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Next Friday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Saturday through Thursday, each afternoon peak winds will be 5-10mph in the Pagosa area and 15-20mph in the high country.

Next Friday, afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph near Pagosa and 25-30mph in the high country.

*Euro snow from 11am today to 11am next Friday shows a little snow this afternoon along the southern Divide and into the Chama area, but otherwise, nothing is expected.*

16 Jan to 24 Jan… Most of this period will be dry but there are signs that the weather pattern will get more active towards the last 2 or 3 days.

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.37”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.53”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.58”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.35”. Unfortunately I think the lower amounts are more likely. — These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.37” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.53”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.58”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.35”.
* *Unfortunately I think the lower amounts are more likely.* *

These are some of my favorite quick-look forecast products. They show ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for multiple model runs. These all tell a similar story. They expect our weather to be dry until around the 22nd and then they hint that the pattern will get more active. My thoughts… Forecast models are notorious for breaking down a blocking pattern too soon. That’s why every couple of days, the forecast models move everything farther out. None of these show a good, organized storm on the horizon. — These are some of my favorite quick-look forecast products. They show ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for multiple model runs. These all tell a similar story. They expect our weather to be dry until around the 22^nd and then they hint that the pattern will get more active.

My thoughts… Forecast models are notorious for breaking down a blocking pattern too soon. That’s why every couple of days, the forecast models move everything farther out. None of these show a good, organized storm on the horizon.

*Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 5.1”.*

*Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 3”.*

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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