Roads could be slick Thursday morning into Friday morning …

Just a dusting of snow makes the Piedra River Canyon look like winter again  – Pic taken 1/5/2026

Just a dusting of snow makes the Piedra River Canyon look like winter again  – Pic taken 1/5/2026

Wednesday – 7 Jan 2026 – 1:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 41, Low: 23, Peak Wind: 17mph

Tuesday: High: 44, Low: 18, Peak Wind: 9mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3555 / 1956-1-36 / 1971

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 2” of new snow on Monday.

CoCoRaHS snow reports for the Monday storm ranged from zero to 1”.
CoCoRaHS snow reports for the Monday storm ranged from zero to 1”.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite around noon on Wednesday – We’ll catch a little bit of low number 1 tonight as it moves through southern NM. Low number 2 will impact us Thursday into Friday morning. Neither of them line up too well for us.
Water vapor satellite around noon on Wednesday – We’ll catch a little bit of low number 1 tonight as it moves through southern NM. Low number 2 will impact us Thursday into Friday morning. Neither of them line up too well for us.
Radar around 12:30pm radar – There isn’t anything in our area yet. Shower activity will gradually increase later this evening from the southwest.
Radar around 12:30pm Wednesday – There isn’t anything in our area yet. Shower activity will gradually increase later this evening from the southwest.

Forecast highlights…

*** Wednesday night into Friday morning we’ll get a little bit of snow in Pagosa.   ***

*** Area roads could be slick Thursday morning into Friday morning. ***

*** And then we’ll be dry for a while – ugh. ***

Forecast details…

Wednesday evening… Clouds will continue to increase ahead of the next low-pressure system.

Wednesday night into Friday morning… We’ll catch a few snowshowers tonight as a low moves through southern NM. And then we’ll have waves of snowshowers as another low moves through the region from the northwest.  Neither scenario favors us, so my expectations are low.

Timing… Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains late Wednesday evening and in the Pagosa area early Thursday morning. Then snow, mostly light with short bursts of moderate, will fall off and on into early Friday morning. Friday morning scattered snow showers will gradually decrease.

Snow amounts…

Pagosa area: 1-3”

Chromo and Chama areas 3-6”

Mountains: 4-8”

Saturday and through next week… A Rex block will set up over much of the west US. We’ll have lots of sun, light winds, and gradual warming.

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Thursday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be near 10 to near 20.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 30s and night lows will be near zero to the low teens.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

Monday, Tuesday, and next Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.

Friday afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph near Pagosa and 25-30mph in the high country.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoon peak winds will be 5-10mph and 15-20mph in the high country.

NBM snow 11pm Wednesday to 11am Friday shows 1.3” near Pagosa, 4” near Chama and 6-9” in the Wolf Creek area..
NBM snow to 11am Friday shows 1.3” near Pagosa, 4” near Chama and 6-9” in the Wolf Creek area..

14 Jan to 22 Jan… Most of this period will be dry but there are signs that the weather pattern will get more active towards the last 2 or 3 days.

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.54”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.72”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.73”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1”. Much of this is expected from the Wednesday night/Thursday system, then it’s dry for 7-8 days, and then a little more precip is expected the last 2 or 3 days of this period.
These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.54”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.72”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.73”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1”.
Much of this is expected from the Wednesday night/Thursday system, then it’s dry for 7-8 days, and then a little more precip is expected the last 2 or 3 days of this period.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 8.3”.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 8.3”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 4.5”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 4.5”.

Keep an eye out for quick Facebook updates. Otherwise, the next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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