A few rainflakes in town and a few snowflakes in the mountains…

It’s always a treat to see hear and these guys – Pic taken 12/30/2025

It’s always a treat to see and hear these guys! – Pic taken 12/30/2025

Tuesday – 30 Dec 2025 – 1:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 40, Low: 19, Peak Wind: 18mph

Monday: High: 45, Low: 13, Peak Wind: 7mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3555 / 19561-25 / 1909

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday around noon – The weak low off the coast will move through our area Friday morning but there won’t be much of left of it.
Water vapor satellite Tuesday around noon – The weak low off the coast will move through our area Friday morning but there won’t be much of left of it.

There is nothing on radar in our area Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** The rest of Tuesday through Wednesday will be mostly sunny, with light winds, warming temps, and dry weather. ***

*** Thursday morning into Friday morning a few scattered showers are possible with light precip amounts. ***

*** Friday afternoon through Monday a few spotty snowshowers are possible over the mountains, but the Pagosa area will stay dry.  ***

Forecast details…

The rest of Tuesday through Wednesday… The ridge will weaken a little and move a little to our east late Wednesday. For most of this period we’ll have lots of sun, light winds, dry weather, and temps will gradually warm. Clouds will increase from the south Wednesday evening.

Thursday into Friday morning… A weak system will move through Thursday morning into Friday morning.  The system will move west to east across CO with upper-level flow out of the west. This doesn’t favor us, so my expectations are low.

The snow level will be around 8,500ft. A few “rainflakes” are possible in the Pagosa area and 1-2” of snow is possible in the mountains.

Friday afternoon through Monday… The ridge will wobble over our heads and slightly to our east. This puts us on the edge of a few weak systems. Patches of clouds will move through and there might be a few scattered snowshowers over the mountains, but I expect the Pagosa area to stay dry.

A few lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow Sunday or Monday, but don’t hold your breath.

Temps…

Tuesday highs will be in the mid-40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be near 20 to near 30.

Thursday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Friday through Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds…

Afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area.  In the high country, afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. The windy spots will be around 5mph stronger on Sunday.

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows 1-2” of snow over our mountains. A westerly trajectory will favor the northwest San Juan Mountains.
The “official” NWS snow forecast shows 1-2” of snow over our mountains. A westerly trajectory will favor the northwest San Juan Mountains.

6 Jan to 14 Jan… This period looks active, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon. Let’s hope a storm parks itself over us and bumps up our snowpack!

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 1.08”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.26”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 2.29”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.88”. The forecast models are fluctuating considerably so I don’t trust them.
These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 1.08”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.26”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 2.29”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.88”.
The forecast models are fluctuating considerably so I don’t trust them.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 14”.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 14”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 6.8”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 6.8”.

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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