Wet on Christmas…

We had a great time with the Pagosa Peak Open School 6^th graders and kindergartners today! – Pic taken 12/18/2025

Thursday – 18 Dec 2025 – 6:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 52, Low: 18, Peak Wind: 8mph

Wednesday: High: 50, Low: 20, Peak Wind: 13mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	65 / 1906	5	-26 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Thursday evening – The big evil ridge continues to force the storm track to our north. Mid and high clouds are moving through our area from the northwest.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, mostly dry, and warm temps through most of 24 Dec. ***

*** Christmas rain for Pagosa and snow for Wolf Creek. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through most of Wednesday… A giant, blocking, evil ridge continues to force the storm track well to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and temps 10-15 degrees above average.

Wednesday night through next Saturday… With the ridge to our east, a long moist fetch out of the southwest will bring us more clouds and multiple chances for precip.

Of course there is no cold air to our southwest, so the system will start off warm. Initially snow levels will creep up to around 9,500ft and then drop below 8,000ft late next Friday night.

The Pagosa area will get rain during the day and “rainflakes” each night. The best chance for snow in the Pagosa area is next Friday night into Saturday morning.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 10-16”

Pagosa area above 8,000ft: 1-3” – next Friday night

Pagosa are below 8,000ft: up to 1” – next Friday night

Temps…

Friday through Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Christmas through next Saturday highs will be in the mid to high 40s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Winds…

In the Pagosa area, afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph each day. In the high country, winds will gust 30-35mph.

*NBM precip to 24 Dec at 11am – No precip is expected in our area. The northern Colorado mountains will get some snow Friday night through Saturday night.*

*NBM snow to 27 Dec at 5pm shows 0.5” of snow near Pagosa and 10-16” near Wolf Creek.*

28 Dec through 1 Jan… The forecast models are all over the place for this period. I think we’ll be on the edge of an active pattern with weak systems and light precip.

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 1.55”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.25”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 1.71”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1.39”. * Precip amounts are trending up. * — These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 1.55”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.25”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 1.71”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1.39”.
* Precip amounts are trending up. *

*Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 17”.*

*Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 4.8”.*

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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