Dark clouds over the mountains this morning – Pic taken 12/20/2025
Saturday – 20 Dec 2025 – 2pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Thursday: High: 51, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 7mph
Friday: High: 53, Low: 20, Peak Wind: 9mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 39 | 56 / 1941 | 3 | -23 / 1908 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
WA state will finally get break as the “atmospheric river” shifts south towards the Sierra Nevada range in CA.
There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** A few more clouds, dry, and warm temps through Tuesday. ***
*** Christmas rain for Pagosa and snow for Wolf Creek. Snow amounts are trending up for Wolf Creek. ***
*** Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening expect poor visibility, falling snow, and slick roads in the mountains. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Saturday through Tuesday… The giant, blocking, evil ridge is starting to flatten but the storm track will remain to our north. We’ll see a few more clouds, but temps will remain 10-15 degrees above average.
Tuesday night through next Monday… With the ridge to our east, a long, moist fetch out of the southwest will bring us more clouds and multiple chances for precip.
Specific timing, snow levels, and precip amounts…
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning the first surge of moisture will kick up a few scattered showers over the mountains above 10,000ft. Wolf Creek Pass could get an inch of snow resulting in slick roads.
Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening the ingredients come together for a good round of rain in the Pagosa area and snow in the mountains. * Expect winter driving conditions in the mountains with poor visibility, falling snow, and slick roads. *
Precip amounts Wedenday afternoon through Friday evening…
Mountains above 9,500ft: 10-16” of snow
Pagosa area: 0.50” to 1” of rain.
* Friday night through next Monday * moisture will gradually decrease but scattered showers will persist. The snow level will bounce around between 7,500ft at night to 8,500ft during the day. The stronger showers each night could briefly drop the snow level to around 7,000ft.
Snow amounts Friday night through next Monday (26-29 Dec) …
Above 8,500ft: 4-8”
7,500ft to 8,500ft: could get 1-3” – most will fall at night and melt during the day
Less than 7,500ft: a dusting to 1” – will fall at night and melt during the day
* Forecast confidence is low for this period. * I will continue to adjust the details as the storm gets closer and the data gets better.
Temps…
Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Christmas and Friday highs will be in the mid to high 40s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Saturday through the following Monday highs will be in the low to mid 40s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Winds…
Sunday through Wednesday afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph each day in the Pagosa area. In the high country, winds will gust 25-30mph.
Thursday and Friday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area. In the high country, winds will gust 30-40mph.
Next weekend afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph in the Pagosa area. In the high country, afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.
30 Dec through 4 Jan… The forecast models are all over the place for this period. The good news is that the pattern should remain active. Outcomes range from light amounts of precip to another pretty good storm.
* Precip amounts are trending up. *
It’s great to see a steady upward trend!
The next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
One Response
Shawn,
I’m on the board of the Weminuche Audubon Society in Pagosa Springs. Our organization has been conducting a Christmas Bird Count every year since 2011 and we would like to be able to see plots of how average temperatures for the month of December have changed from 2011 to 2025 here in Pagosa so we might be able to correlate changes in some bird populations. I’ve done some searching without success online. Could you either provide us, or tell us how to obtain a table like this: column 1 – years from 2011 to 2024, columns 2 & 3 – December daily averages for high and low temperatures?
Thanks so much,
Bob