Hoping for another winter like ’22/’23. Pagosa Springs had 124″ and Wolf Creek Ski Resort had 490″. – Pic taken 2/16/2023 (Click on title of post to see picture)
Thursday, November 27th, 2025 6:00pm
Happy Thanksgiving to Everyone! We hope at the end of this winter, we will all be giving thanks for a beautiful winter.
Shawn and I both love snow as does the Pagosa Weather mascot, Tommy! When we talk about good winters, we mean lots of snow!
We have seen our first few official inches of snow at 8,000 feet and Wolf Creek has recorded 33″. But town has not had their first inch yet. We are off to a slow start this year. Every year the biggest question we get is “How much snow are we going to get this winter?”
The objective of the winter outlook is to look at the current oscillations of the atmosphere and try to interpolate what sort of winter we are going to have. I am always trying to draw conclusions from correlation of these oscillations.
First, let’s look back and see what kind of winter Pagosa Country had the last few years.
Recap of Winter Outlook 2021/2022
Winter started out with an advisory for La Niña, the second winter in a row. In October and November we had just a few systems that left less than average snowfall.
We made up for that in December when 170” of snow fell at Wolf Creek. The snowstorm systems were directly correlated to an intensification of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in stage 7 offsetting the influence of the La Niña.
However, the La Niña pattern fully kicked in for the rest of the winter keeping all systems to our north. We had a weak arctic outbreak in February, but it was not enough to offset the impact of La Niña.
By April, Pagosa had an average of 83” of snow, just 83% of the historic average of 100.3. At Wolf Creek, the resort closed with 385”, 106% of their 360″ average. The MJO snowstorms over Christmas and New Years saved our winter season.
Recap of Winter Outlook 2022/2023
Winter 2022/2023 was the third La Niña winter. It sure didn’t look like it.
The Pagosa Springs area had more then average snow during the winter of 2022/2023. The total for the season was 124.7″ – 24.4″ above the average of 100.3″. Snowfall from October to December was less than average, as expected. Snow really picked up in January for our snowiest month.
At Wolf Creek Ski Resort, it tied with the winter of 2018/2019 for the third most snow at in the last 46 years: 490″ or 136% of average of 360″ average for Wolf Creek Ski Resort. To read more information about that year’s beautiful winter see my winter review article. Winter 2022/2023 Review
Recap of Winter Outlook 2023/2024
It was an El Nino Winter and we expected at least average snow. Pagosa Springs had 75″ of snow or 75% of their average of 100″ a year. Wolf Creek ski resort only had 325″ or 90% of their average snowfall of 360″. Yet, the Snotel sites tell a different story and were 102.5% of average. What happened? It was a warm winter!
Throughout the winter of ’23/’24 temperatures were about 4 degrees (F) above normal. So the snow that was falling had more moisture per inch than normal. This resulted in below average snowfall at Wolf Creek yet near average water content in the snow pack. Same is true of the snow down in Pagosa Springs. This was due to the lack of colder air making its way south during that winter. The El Nino pattern only really set up for one week in February.
Recap of Winter Outlook 2024/2025
24/25 started out good with Wolf Creek getting above average snow in November. Then it went downhill. Winter 24/25 was a dry winter because there was a persistent trough/low pressure system over the Bering Sea and a ridge near the west coast. The storm track stayed to our north putting us under predominately northwest flow. This pattern favors Colorado’s central and northern mountains, while we just get scraps.
Overall it was warmer than average with the exception of January which was colder than average.
Last winter was a weak La Nina pattern but it set up and looked like a strong LaNina with systems staying primarily to our north. It is well depicted in the Snotel graphics.
Winters are listed on the left with the worst listed first according to records from Wolf Creek Ski resort dating back to 1976. The next two columns reflect accumulations received over the next two winters. We have not had one abysmal winter followed by another abysmal winter in the last 50 years
Notes about Historical data
Note: 1. There are inconsistencies in our historical data. 2. The location of our historical data moved around the Pagosa Springs area. Because of our terrain, just moving a mile or two in any direction results in significant differences. 3. We use an average from individual monthly CoCoRaHS totals that include at least 60% of the daily reports. This is not precise but gives us a good idea where we stand. 4. Stevens Field is the official observation point for Pagosa Springs but they did not record precipitation form 2001 till 2025 and they still do not measure snow.
There are a number of different tools I look at to do a seasonal winter outlook. First, is an old standby.
Farmer’s Almanac Outlook Winter 2025/2026
Last year the historic Farmer’s Almanac had said Pagosa would have a “Cold, Average Snowfall” winter. Well, we had well below average snowfall and it was warmer than average again.
This year, the Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a Very Cold, Snowy winter.
We hope they are right. This will be their last forecast. The Farmers’ Almanac announced it will cease publication after its 2026 edition, its 208th year. But the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” continues with its 2025-2026 winter forecast, predicting an average, traditional winter that may last through April.
There are a number of models and oscillations I look at to determine our winter seasonal outlook. First, let’s talk about our winter pattern and what gives us cold and stormy weather.
Airmasses
To understand our winter patterns, we need to review basic earth science.
Always remember, weather happens because the atmosphere wants to be the same temperature and pressure everywhere! It’s always trying to equal out! There are air masses of constant temperature, humidity and pressure that form over homogeneous source regions.
These source regions are large land and oceanic areas around the globe. Due to the rotating earth, centrifugal forces, centripetal forces, and pressure gradient forces, these high pressure airmasses slide around, creating areas of low pressure between them, associated frontal systems and weather along the way as they all try to equalize.
Here in Colorado, we are impacted by the following modified airmasses: Maritime Polar (wet, cool), Continental Polar (dry, cold), Continental Tropical (dry, hot), Maritime Tropical (wet, warm), and Arctic (dry, very cold). Maritime Polar and Maritime tropical colliding with Continental Polar can come together and set up a good snowstorm for us if the systems move at us from the southwest.
What are the controlling factors of these airmasses?
Oceans are much slower to cool or warm than land masses. Over oceanic areas, the way in which systems and air masses circulate is referred to as oscillation. If oceanic areas are their normal temperatures, pressure systems, associated fronts, and air masses move along, so storms give equal consideration to all parts of the country and everyone throughout the Intermountain West sees close to average snowfall totals.
However, differing sea temperatures can throw this schedule off…
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Most of you have heard the terms El Niño and La Niña. After a strong El Niño event in 1997-1998, weather folks learned to pay more attention to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and we have learned how the El Niño and La Niña events can impact our winter snow accumulation. “La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO.”
The ENSO impacts oceanic temperatures near the equator. These temperature changes either suppress or enhance normal storm formations. Amazingly, these impacts at the equator result in changes thousands of miles north and to the normal Polar Front Jet flow as it circles the earth. Areas either see more lows and associated frontal systems or fewer.
If sea temperatures are too warm, an El Niño pattern results and the theory says that the Pagosa area sees more than average snow. However, that can vary wildly. Winter 2018-2019, there was just a weak El Niño and Pagosa Country had near record snowfall. See Picture 4 and the map below.
Note: that the southwest corner of Colorado is in a neutral blank area just north of “wetter”.
If sea temperatures are cooler than normal, a La Niña pattern forms and the Pagosa area sees less than average snow according to the theory. Winter 2017-2018, we were under a La Niña pattern and saw little snow with a paltry 54% snowpack in April. But winter 2022-2023 was a La Nina Pattern and we had 179% snow pack in April. See Picture 6 and map below.
We’ll look at what the ENSO is up to this year after looking at the other oscillations.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a circulation of winds that occurs in the lower stratosphere above and near the equator. Again, the lowest level of the atmosphere where we live is the troposphere and above that is the tropopause, a thin layer between the two. Above the tropopause is the stratosphere. These lower stratospheric winds can impact the strength of global systems.
The QBO has a cycle of around 28 months. For about 14 months it is out of the east and then it weakens and reverses and flows out of the west for the next 14 months.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Circling the global around the equator is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian can be broken down into eight different stages that continually circulates around the globe. The stages are different areas of suppressed and enhanced areas.
It takes 30-60 days for this pattern to complete a circulation around the globe. This oscillation influences typhoon/hurricane development as well. In addition, it can be weak, or it can be stronger.
Depending on where its areas sit, it can influence the Walker and therefore the systems impacting us. In addition, it can counteract the effect of the ENSO. Or it can magnify the intensity. For example, if a large, enhanced area with a strong MJO were to move over our area during an El Niño winter, we could see some very strong storms that have the potential to drop a lot of snow. Especially, if this all happens with an Arctic Oscillation outbreak!
On the other hand, if an enhanced area with a strong MJO were to move over our area during a La Niña winter, the MJO could negate the impact of the La Niña and allow storm systems to move further south and into our area.
That is exactly what happened in December of 2021. Wolf Creek received 170” of snow in a few weeks time, accounting for 44% of the season’s snowfall.
The Arctic Oscillation
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the wobbling of the arctic airmass that forms over the North Pole regions during the winter. Winter of 2020-2021 there were indications of record stratospheric temperatures over the polar regions.
Remember, we live in the Troposphere, where temperatures decrease with height. Above that is a thin dividing layer, the tropopause. Above the tropopause is the Stratosphere region, where temperatures increase with height. Record high temperatures indicated a very compressed and very, very cold arctic airmass.
We can look at is how extensive the snow fields are in Siberia to get an idea as to how strong the airmass is.
It can be very difficult to forecast a polar vortex outbreak because that cold air spins like a top before it suddenly sends a bubble of frigid air south. We can monitor it closely to see if it becomes “disrupted”.
The AO wobbled for several weeks in January and February of 2021, before there were several Polar Vortex outbreaks. Surprisingly, it snowed in Spain. Texas had historical cold temperatures. And we had excellent snowfall the third week in February.
Volcanic Eruptions
Volcanic eruptions can inject “huge amounts of volcanic gas, aerosol droplets, and ash”, such as sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. Once in the stratosphere, they are dispersed by stratospheric winds such as the QBO around the world. Sulfur dioxide converts to sulfuric acid, “which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth’s lower atmosphere or troposphere”. This impact can last up to three years depending on the force of the eruption.
In contrast when the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano erupted January 15th, 2022 in the southern Pacific, “sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer… The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano could remain in the stratosphere for several years.” Water vapor unlike the aerosols, can cause warming of the earth’s surface since water vapor traps heat. It still is not clear as to how this influenced winter 2022-2023.
Now that we have reviewed the oscillations that impact our winter weather outlook, let’s take a look at what those oscillation are up to now and how they will impact us this winter.
We’ll look at each of these oscillations and see what they are forecast to do this winter. Then determine how they will interact with each other and what the result will be for the winter and snowfall in Pagosa country.
ENSO Outlook
Climatologists are forecasting a weak La Nina to Neutral ENSO this winter. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are below average across the eastern and central Pacific at this time. They are expected to warm slightly starting in January.
Using 49 years of data from Wolf Creek Ski Resort, I did a study to determine if the myth of our area having more snow during an El Nino Winter and less snow during a La Nina winter is true. The results are very fascinating…
In the last 49 years, we have had 18 La Nina events. During six of those events we had above average snow or more than 380″ of snow and during another six of those events we had less than 340″ of snow at Wolf Creek Ski Resort. The remaining 6 events were average or 340 to 380″ of snow. Toss a coin! Note: Wolf Creek Ski Resort snow does not take into account early snows of spring storms after the resort closes so this average number is much lower than the numbers kept for years at Wolf Creek Pass.
The main impact of either a cold or warm ENSO event is that the pattern gets STUCK. The undulating polar front jet does not advance to the east as it normally does. Areas receiving little snow continue to be dry. Other areas getting slammed with snow continue to be inundated with storms.
I have found that it is important to look at other global oscillations and get clues as to how these players will interact with each other. They can enhance or negate the impact of the ENSO…
QBO Outlook
The QBO is measured at 50mb or millibars. The higher the pressure level the closer it is to the gournd. For example 1,000mb represents the surface. Unless you live in Pagosa Springs. Then you look at a pressure level around 790mb. 50mb is in the lower stratosphere!
Westerly winds in the table below are represented by positive numbers and Easterly winds are represented by negative numbers.
The correlation between westerly QBO winds and a LaNina ENSO resulting in above average snow was blown last year. We must also keep in mind that part of the winter last year was neutral and not La Nina (see ENSO section above). We will continue to monitor and see if we can find another factor that impacted last year.
According to Open Snow they have analog years in which a weak LaNina and a strong easterly QBO correlate to a ridge over the west coast and less than average snow across the southwest. Again, my confidence in correlations to the QBO is questionable after last winter.
MJO Outlook
The MJO is at the highest index that we have seen in our area since December of 2021 when Wolf Creek had 170″ of snow for the month. A high MJO does not necessarily equate to higher snow amounts in our area. It means that what storm systems are moving over the western United States will be enhanced. That might be to the north of us or it might be to the south of us.
MJO Forecast: Red & Purple line indicate strength & location over last few weeks. Green line is forecast strength & location over next few weeks. Yellow lines are the different ensemble model solutions. The MJO is always in a equatorial position latitudinal. The graph indicates its location around the globe and it strength. The farther away from the inner circle, the stronger it is. Sector 7 is when it is in an ideal position to influence our weather. The MJO moves into an ideal position this weekend and through the first week of December.
AO Outlook
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently negative and is predicted to become positive over the next two weeks. A positive AO to start will help build/block cold air for stronger outbreaks later in the winter.
It will probably be difficult to forecast the extent/strength of the AO outlook till we get into December. Arctic sea ice extent is just starting to grow but slowly for now. The strength of the AO can be measured in the extent of sea ice and snow fields.
Sea Ice Extent as of 25 Nov 25. The ice extent is less than median extent. This is expected given that the AO has been negative. Cold air has been migrating south rather than building and concentrating over the arctic.
Negative AO (as it was for most of November) indicates a broken AO with deep undulations in the lower latitudes allowing cold air transpositions. Positive variations indicate that the AO is stable with winds circulating in a tight circle around the northern latitudes with few undulations.
850mb or ~ 5,000 feet Temperature Analysis centered on North Pole. It is high enough not to be impacted by diurnal changes yet low enough to capture the shallow cold pools of air. On 25 November the flow is disrupted with cold pols over northern Russia and Greenland. According the GFS model in two weeks or on 11 December the cold pool over northern Russia will intensify and there will be another cold pool forming over interior Alaska and northern Canada. The flow is still disrupted.
In the past a La Nina Winter has resulted in a strong arctic outbreak. The winter ’21/’22 is a good example when there was a stratospheric warming event (lower atmosphere is very cold during such event). If we are going to see such an event it is normally in January or February.
Volcanic Eruptions
According to the Smithsonian Institute, “There were 63 confirmed eruptions at some point during 2025 from 58 different volcanoes; 21 of those were new eruptions that started during the year” around the globe.
Of note for our discussion, are the two Russian volcanoes on the Kamchatkan peninsula. Both were explosive and effusive. Explosive activity continues with Shiveluch. According to the Volcanic Discovery website, “Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 22000 ft (6700 m) altitude or flight level 220 and is moving at 20 kts in E direction.”
According to the Nasa website, “The Krasheninnikova volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula recently reawakened after more than 400 years of quiescence. The volcano began spilling lava and sending up plumes of ash on the morning of August 3, 2025… and has continued erupting ash, volcanic gases, and lava for several months.”
Looking out the Window
Have you ever been driving down the road and the local weather news comes on the radio and they are talking about sunny skies? At the same time rain is hitting your windshield and you are turning on the wipers. You yell at the radio, “Look out your window!”
These products are my window. What has been happened in recent history? What is happening now? How is it impacting my winter outlook?
Since we live in the Ferrel Cell westerlies, we watch systems upstream. This image shows enhanced areas southwest of Mexico. As the LaNina intensifies, this area should become more suppressed.
Starting in September, we were impacted by systems coming from the eastern Pacific and cutoff lows. They didn’t fit in the normal oscillation pattern. It appears to be continuing.
Does this reflect a LaNina pattern? Winter has just started & these numbers will change quickly, increasing & decreasing as the winter pattern sets up. Still, Arizona is doing great where normally under a typical LaNina they get cutoff. Wolf Creek pass sits at 66%/69% as of 24 Nov 25.
Long Range Model Forecasts
CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Outlook
The CPC outlook is very much following the lines of a typical La Nina pattern
Climate Forecast System Outlook
The CFS or Climate Forecast system is looking for a chance of above average precipitation for our area for the months of December, January, and February. But it is backwards from a LaNina patten. What else is impacting this forecast?
EURO Outlook
Canadian Outlook
Open Snow Outlook
Pagosa Weather Winter Outlook for Snow for 2025/2026
Based on the information we have at this time, Pagosa Weather winter outlook for Pagosa and Wolf Creek is that we will have average snow for December into January. The weak LaNina pattern will be the main player though we will be influenced by the MJO early in December. We could see average to above average snow in February into March as we transition from LaNina to Neutral ENSO conditions and the chance of a polar stratospheric warming event. In addition, the MJO has been very active and will migrate back to our area in January or February.
The Pagosa Weather winter outlook is that we’ll have AVERAGE snowfall for Winter 2025/2026.
Pagosa Weather will continue to follow the oscillations and update you as more information becomes available.
Remember, keep those snow dances going! Take a quick look at This is Pagosa to remember how to do your snow dances: This is Pagosa Snow Dance
Some articles for further reading and fun learning:
Severe Weather Europe Outlook: Winter 2025/2026 snowfall predictions
Open Snow Outlook : 2025-2026 Snowfall Outlook
Powder Chasers Outlook: 2025-2026 North America Winter Outlook
CPC Outlook: 3 month official Forecasts
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
ENSO Blog: ENSO Blog
ENSO: Diagnostic Discussion
ENSO: Cold & Warm Episodes by Season
MJO: What is the MJO & Why do we care and No butterflies, just tropical rainfall
MJO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
QBO: Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation
QBO: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
QBO: Raw Data
QBO: NASA QBO Live data
AO: CPC Current Conditions & Outlook
Sea Ice: National Snow & Ice Data Center
Volcanos: USGS Volcanoes Can Affect Climate
Volcanos: Nasa article on Tonga Eruption
Snow Pack: USDA NWCC SWE Interactive Map page
– Arleen
3 Responses
That is excellent historical and forecast information! You really brought out my inner weather nerd. Thank you!
Paul, excellent! I really enjoy researching and writing those posts. Or rather my inner nerd does! Now it is time to do our snow dances!
This summary and sited articles for “learning more” made for a certain read and save.
Here’s hoping La Niña finds its home in the upper San Juan River Valley and it looks like the photo of you and Tommy.