Sunny and dry through Tuesday – unsettled Wednesday and Thursday…

San Juan River in Pagosa Springs cleanup sponsored by 5 River Trout Unlimited. For more details and to sign up, go to this LINK.

San Juan River in Pagosa Springs cleanup sponsored by 5 River Trout Unlimited. For more details and to sign up, go to this LINK.

Saturday – 18 Oct 2025 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 55, Low: 32, Peak Wind: 18mph

Friday: High: 55, Low: 25, Peak Wind: 16mph

The cold spots have dipped into the low 20s the last two mornings.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6380 / 1951258 / 1968

Precipitation summary and river levels… There has been lots of sun and no precip the last 2 days!

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us good weather through Tuesday. The low off the southern coast will move through our area on Thursday and kick a few showers. The storm track will push lots of moisture across the Pacific NW over the next week or two.
Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us good weather through Tuesday. The low off the southern coast will move through our area on Thursday and kick up a few showers. The storm track will push lots of moisture across the Pacific NW over the next week or two.

There is nothing on radar in our region Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Saturday afternoon through Tuesday there will be lots of sun and dry weather. ***

*** Wednesday and Thursday a little bit of valley rain and little bit of mountain snow is possible. ***

*** Friday and next Saturday will be nice. ***

*** Next Sunday and Monday we might catch the southern end of a trough and a few scattered showers. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through Tuesday… Ridging will build over the region and give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be 5 degrees below average to near average.

Wednesday and Thursday… A weak trough will move through and kick up a few scattered showers.

The best chance for precip is Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Precip amounts will be low. The Wolf Creek area will get 1-3” of snow.

Friday and next Saturday… Transient ridging will give us partly cloudy skies, dry weather, and temps near average.

Next Sunday and Monday… A trough will skirt to our north. We’ll have more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low unless the system dips farther south. Forecast confidence in the details is low at this point.

Temps…

Saturday through Wednesday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s. Saturday night through Tuesday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Wednesday night lows will be in the low 30s to the low 40s.

Thursday, Friday, and next Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.

Winds…

Gusts each afternoon will be 15-20mph.

*** As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. ***

Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.43” and up to 0.60’ in our mountains.  I think might be a bit too much.
Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.43” and up to 0.60’ in our mountains.  I think is a bit too much.
Euro snow to next Thursday evening shows none near Pagosa and 1-3” in the Wolf Creek area. The snow level will bounce between 10,000ft and 11,000ft.
Euro snow to next Thursday evening shows none near Pagosa and 1-3” in the Wolf Creek area. The snow level will bounce between 10,000ft and 11,000ft.

The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 26-28 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.

On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 2 Nov at 6am shows 0.77” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.39”. The Euro expects the next system to dip a little farther south and give us more precip. I expect the storm track to stay to our north and I do not expect much precip during this period.
On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 2 Nov at 6am shows 0.77” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.39”. The Euro expects the next system to dip a little farther south and give us more precip.
I expect the storm track to stay to our north and I do not expect much precip during this period.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 7.3” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 7.3” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days.

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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3 Responses

  1. Shawn and Arlene,
    In case you had not seen this message through other notifications, our planned 10/25 5RTU San Juan River Cleanup has been postponed. Pagosa Springs Parks & Rec. made a determination this week that they are putting volunteer cleanup activities along the San Juan in town on hold for now due to safety reasons. They will be utilizing some heavy equipment to clear debris and stabilize banks near term and hence request volunteer cleanups wait until that work is completed. We are hoping to reschedule for Mid-November, pending conditions and progress by the City. Thanks again to you and all volunteers!
    Regards,
    Ed Feragen
    Five Rivers Trout Unlimited

    Reply

  2. Shawn and Arlene,
    Sincere thanks to you both for including the headline shoutout for our 10/25 5RTU San Juan River Cleanup, greatly appreciate the extra publicity, know it will help bring out more volunteers!
    Look forward to seeing you Saturday, all the best.
    Ed Feragen

    Reply

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