A little valley rain and a little mountain snow on Thursday…

Love these fall scenes in Pagosa Country! – pic taken 10/16/2025

Monday – 20 Oct 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 59, Low: 26, Peak Wind: 16mph

Sunday: High: 63, Low: 28, Peak Wind: 20mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	77 / 1991	25	10 / 1946

Precipitation summary and river levels… There has been lots of sun and no precip in the last 2 days.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is giving us dry flow out of the northwest. The main storm track is over the Pacific NW. The low off the southern west coast will move through our area Thursday evening. There isn’t much moisture with it now and there won’t be much moisture when it impacts us.

There is nothing on radar in our region Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon there will be lots of sun and dry weather. ***

*** Wednesday night and Thursday a little bit of valley rain and a little bit of mountain snow is possible. ***

*** Friday and Saturday will be nice. ***

*** Sunday and Monday we might catch the southern end of a trough and a few scattered showers. ***

Forecast details…

Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon… A ridge will give us sunny and dry weather through Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday… A weak trough will move through and kick up a few scattered showers.

The best chance for precip is Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Precip amounts will be low. The Wolf Creek area will get a dusting to 2” of snow.

Friday and next Saturday… Transient ridging will give us partly cloudy skies, dry weather, and temps near average.

Sunday and Monday… A trough will skirt to our north. We’ll have more clouds and a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low unless the system dips farther south.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Tuesday highs will be near 60 to the mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid to high 60s and lows will be in the low 30s to the low 40s.

Thursday through Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s. On clear nights, the cold spots will dip into the mid-20s.

Winds…

Gusts each afternoon through Saturday will be 15-20mph.

Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

*** As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. ***

*Euro precip to Thursday evening shows 0.46” and up to 0.60’ in our mountains. I expect half as much.*

Euro snow to Thursday evening shows none near Pagosa and a trace to 2” in the Wolf Creek area. The snow level will start around 11,000ft Wednesday night and drop to around 10,000ft by Thursday evening.

The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 26-28 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 4 Nov at 6am shows 0.56” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.66”. I expect the storm track to stay to our north, and I do not expect much precip during this period.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 5” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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