Most of Archuleta County has “moderate drought” conditions while southwest Archuleta County has “severe drought”. Drought conditions improved for the whole county during our wetter than average September.
Thursday – 2 Oct 2025 – 10:00am
September Summary…
The average high for Sep is 74 and the average low is 37. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 Sep 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 Sep 1908. Sep precip averages 2.00″ and average snowfall is 0.20″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of precip and 4.1″ snow.
At Stevens Field the highest temp was 82 on 3 Sep and the lowest temp was 33 on 24 Sep. There were 3 days with winds at or over 30mph. The strongest wind was 36mph on 13 Sep.
How did we do?
Drought and River Levels…
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the western US is experiencing drought conditions.
October Outlook…
The average high for Oct is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 Oct 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 Oct 1910. Oct precip averages 2.27″ and average snowfall is 4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ snow.
The precip outlook on the right shows “equal chances” for average precip.
The Euro expects more than the average of 2.27″ and the GFS expects near average. Last month the GFS did better than the Euro.
And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…
October is a transition month. We continue to tip away from the sun. The winter pattern tries to set up, with cold air masses dipping farther south each week. October average precipitation of 2.27” is a bit more than September. And in October we see our first snows! Pagosa averages 4” and Wolf Creek averages almost 27”.
The long wave trough sets up to our west for most of the month – perfect for southwest flow. Meanwhile, the tropical waters in the Baja area are warmer than normal.
We’ll see an area of low pressure impact us the first week (3rd/4th). Then tropical storm (Pricilla?) is forecast to form in the Baja area. IF she does, her moisture will advect up into our area, giving us unsettled weather with rainshowers every day for a week and over half our monthly average precipitation. This will also bring a few inches of snow to the mountains. But she has to form first…
The third week of October looks to be a pleasant dry week. Then at the end of the month we should have our first real winter system bringing a little snow to Pagosa and a nice coating in the mountains.
We’ll have average to above average precipitation and average snowfall with average temperatures.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
- Shawn
