Fall colors are beginning to change in Pagosa Country. The weather and the views were fantastic yesterday up at the lake! – pic taken 10/1/2025
Thursday – 2 Oct 2025 – 3:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Tuesday: High: 65, Low: 40, Minimum relative humidity: 37%, Peak Wind: 22mph
Wednesday: High: 69, Low: 37, Minimum relative humidity: 28%, Peak Wind: 17mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 69 | 84 / 1934 | 32 | 18 / 1950 |
Precipitation summary… I was surprised but happy to see rain on Tuesday.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Rest of Thursday through Friday afternoon will be nice with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons. ***
*** Friday evening through Saturday afternoon there will be more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
*** HARD FREEZE Saturday night with temps down to the mid-20s. ***
*** Sunday and Monday will be nice with scattered clouds. ***
*** Tuesday through the rest of the week will be unsettled with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Priscilla might visit. Forecast confidence in the details is low. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Thursday and most of Friday… A ridge will be to our east and a trough will be approaching from the west. We’ll be in middle with not much going on. Expect scattered afternoon clouds and dry weather. Winds will pick up Friday afternoon.
Friday evening through Saturday afternoon… We’ll catch the tail-end of a trough as it passes to our north. There will be gustier winds, more clouds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Snow levels will start around 13,000ft Friday evening and then drop to around 11,000ft by Saturday afternoon. Our mountains above 11,000ft could get an inch or two of snow.
Saturday night through Monday… We will be between systems as the ridge holds to our east, and an upper-level trough stalls along the West Coast.
Tuesday through the rest of next week… Tricky forecast next week!
The trough will be stalled along the West Coast. This will result in persistent, mid and upper level moist flow out of the southwest and south. A persistent fetch of subtropical moisture could result in a good soaking.
Priscilla might visit. She is expected to form off the Mexican Pacific Coast this weekend. Her remnants could move through our area towards the end of next week.
As of today, this is what I expect…
Tuesday there will just be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday through Saturday we will get a soaking with occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Snow… A subtropical feed means relatively warm air and mostly rain. Snow levels will bounce around between 11,000ft and 12,000ft. Temps will hover around freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate. I expect the mountains above 11,000ft to get 2-4” of snow over the entire period.
*** My forecast confidence in the details is low. I’ll adjust timing, precip amounts, and mountain snow as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Cold spots will flirt with freezing temperatures.
Saturday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the *** mid-20s to low 30s ***.
Sunday through next Thursday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the *** LOW to high 30s ***.
Winds…
Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Friday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.
Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.
Sunday and Monday afternoons gusts will be 20-25mph.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop wildly for the 8-14 day period. One model run will show multiple low-pressure systems impacting us and then the next model run shows them missing us.
The good news is that the jet stream has slipped south and is active. There is potential for the first half of October to be wet.
The models show potential for an active pattern, but I don’t trust them.
IF the precip amount is in the ballpark and it’s warmer than expected, snow totals will be lower. If it’s colder than expected, snow totals will be higher. IF we were in the middle of winter, this would be 3-4 feet of snow! For now, my expectations are for less precip (less than 3.5”), and for 2-4” of snow.
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
