A few spotty afternoon storms Friday and Saturday…

Clear, moonless night on Lake Forest, Monday night! Huge thanks to Dena Laterza for this picture! Her star gazer group will have two BYOBinoculars Star Parties this Saturday and Sunday nights. 8pm@Yamaguchi Park (near the Pickleball courts)

Thursday – 18 Sep 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 74, Low: 42, Minimum relative humidity: 17%, Peak Wind: 28mph

Wednesday: High: 74, Low: 38, Minimum relative humidity: 13%, Peak Wind: 26mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7386 / 1956369 / 1993

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Prescribed fire in Turkey Springs…

PRESCRIBED FIRE AHEAD! The Pagosa Ranger District is planning prescribed fire operations Thursday and Friday, September 18-19th in the Turkey Springs area, approximately ½ mile from the Hatcher Subdivision, immediately adjacent to NFSR roads 629 (Turkey Springs), 919 (Brockover) and 923 (Newt Jack Road). Objectives of the Brockover-Devil Prescribed Fire are to reduce hazardous fuels, improve forage conditions for wildlife species and lessen the risk of wildfire impacts to the community of Pagosa Springs.
PRESCRIBED FIRE AHEAD! The Pagosa Ranger District is planning prescribed fire operations Thursday and Friday, September 18-19th in the Turkey Springs area, approximately ½ mile from the Hatcher Subdivision, immediately adjacent to NFSR roads 629 (Turkey Springs), 919 (Brockover) and 923 (Newt Jack Road). Objectives of the Brockover-Devil Prescribed Fire are to reduce hazardous fuels, improve forage conditions for wildlife species and lessen the risk of wildfire impacts to the community of Pagosa Springs.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite late Thursday afternoon – Dry upper-level flow out of the northwest is giving us great weather today. Tomorrow and Saturday some of the moisture currently over CA will move through our area and kick up a few afternoon storms.
Water vapor satellite late Thursday afternoon – Dry upper-level flow out of the northwest is giving us great weather today. Tomorrow and Saturday some of the moisture currently over CA will move through our area and kick up a few afternoon storms.

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Friday and Saturday hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. Precip amounts will be low. ***

*** Sunday through next Thursday we’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, maybe a weak afternoon shower over the mountains, and pleasant temps. ***

Rest of Thursday… A ridge is giving us great weather today.

Friday and Saturday… A weak through will move through the region. We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low.

Sunday through next Thursday… A blocking ridge will push upper-level winds out of the northwest with dry air across our region. We’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, maybe a weak afternoon shower over the mountains, and pleasant temps.

Temps…

Highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Cold spots will flirt with freezing temps.

What is a “cold spot”? Cold spots are in low-lying areas where the coldest air sinks to. These areas can be 5 degrees colder than the slightly higher spots nearby. If your low temp is often just below my forecast low temperature range, then you live in a cold spot. *** To be safe, consider covering your sensitive plants. ***

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will mostly be around 20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.15”” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Friday and Saturday.
Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.15”” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Friday and Saturday.

The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop widely for the 8-14 day period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 3 Oct at 6am shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.14”. That’s a big difference. I think the ridge will win so the Euro will be more accurate.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 3 Oct at 6am shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.14”. That’s a big difference. I think the ridge will win so the Euro will be more accurate.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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