A few spots of fall color in the Conejos Valley – pic taken 9/17/2025
Saturday – 20 Sep 2025 – 4:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Thursday: High: 73, Low: 36, Minimum relative humidity: 14%, Peak Wind: 21mph
Friday: High: 71, Low: 37, Minimum relative humidity: 30%, Peak Wind: 18mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 72 | 83 / 1984 | 35 | 18 / 1971 |
Precipitation summary… There was no recent measurable precip on Thursday. Friday a few folks in the Pagosa Lakes area reported 0.01” to 0.03”.
Prescribed fire in Turkey Springs…
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Saturday and Monday hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. Most of us will stay dry. ***
*** Sunday and Tuesday through Thursday we’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, maybe a weak afternoon shower over the mountains, and pleasant temps. ***
*** Friday through next weekend there will be a few more clouds and a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***
Rest of Saturday and again on Monday… A weak through will move through Saturday evening and then another will move through northern CO late Monday and into Tuesday. We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Most of us will stay dry.
Sunday, and Tuesday through Thursday… A ridge will push upper-level winds out of the northwest with dry air across our region. We’ll have lots of blue sky, scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, maybe a weak afternoon shower over the mountains, and pleasant temps.
Friday and next weekend… An upper-level low will slowly track through AZ and NM. There will be a little more moisture and instability, so we’ll see a few spotty afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts will be low.
Temps…
Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Cold spots will flirt with freezing temps.
What is a “cold spot”? Cold spots are in low-lying areas where the coldest air sinks to. These areas can be 5 degrees colder than the slightly higher spots nearby. If your low temp is often just below my forecast low temperature range, then you live in a cold spot. *** To be safe, consider covering your sensitive plants. ***
Winds… Gusts each afternoon will mostly be around 20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The higher precip amounts across northern CO and southeastern WY are from the trough on Monday and Tuesday.
The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop wildly for the 8-14 day period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!
The models are all over the place so I don’t trust them.
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
