Decreasing chance for showers Friday and Saturday…

Another gorgeous Pagosa Country sunset! – Pic taken 7/30/2025

Another gorgeous Pagosa Country sunset! – Pic taken 7/30/2025

Thursday – 31 Jul 2025 – 9:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 85, and on Thursday it was 83. The low this morning was 47. The cold spots were near 40.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday afternoon was 18% and Thursday afternoon it was 19%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 32mph and on Thursday it was 31mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404734 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Most reports from yesterday and Tuesday were zero or a trace, but a couple of folks got a good soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Thursday morning ranged from zero to 0.35”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Thursday morning ranged from zero to 0.35”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Wednesday morning range from zero to 0.13”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Wednesday morning range from zero to 0.13”.

Fire and smoke…

As of Thursday evening, The Rim Road Fire west of Ignacio is at 114 acres and is 75% contained.

As of Thursday evening, the Elkhorn Fire north of Durango is 317 acres and is 15% contained.

Thankfully the air is clear, and air quality is good across Archuleta County.

*** Mid-level winds could turn more westerly Friday night which would push smoke from the 100,000+ acre Dragon Bravo Fire in northern AZ into our area. ***

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite and lightning roughly 6:40pm to 7:40pm Thursday – There was quite a bit of lightning in the Pagosa Springs and Chama areas this afternoon and evening. It will be less active tomorrow.
Visual satellite and lightning roughly 6:40pm to 7:40pm Thursday – There was quite a bit of lightning in the Pagosa Springs and Chama areas this afternoon and evening. It will be less active tomorrow.
Radar at 8:28pm Thursday – In the Pagosa Springs area showers are moving towards the east-northeast and weakening.
Radar at 8:28pm Thursday – In the Pagosa Springs area showers are moving towards the east-northeast and weakening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and then just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Saturday. ***

*** Sunny, dry, and warm, with gusty afternoon winds Sunday through Tuesday. Concerned about fire danger. ***

*** Just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm the rest of next week. ***

*** The 8-15 day period does not look encouraging. ***

*** Recent rainfall across Pagosa Country has varied considerably. Fire danger remains high. New lightning fires are possible. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Thursday through next Thursday… The monsoon plume will weaken Friday and Saturday and then get cut-off Sunday through Tuesday. The second half of next week a little more moisture will move in.

And what does that mean? A few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and then just a slight chance on Saturday. Sunday through next Tuesday will be sunny, warm, and dry with gusty afternoon winds. Wednesday through the rest of next week there is just a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Temps…

Friday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Sunday through next Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Friday will be 15-20mph. Saturday through Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Wednesday and next Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Tuesday evening shows 0.11” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected Thursday night and Friday.
NBM precip to next Tuesday evening shows 0.11” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected Thursday night and Friday.

The 8-14 day period… A weak monsoon pattern with weak moisture and weak instability will set up. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will be mostly light.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 15 Aug at 6am shows 0.27” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.90”. Let’s hope the GFS is right! Precip amounts will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 15 Aug at 6am shows 0.27” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.90”. Let’s hope the GFS is right! Precip amounts will vary considerably.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip for us.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip for us.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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