A little more active Thursday through Saturday…

Another colorful sunset in our mountain paradise – Pic taken 7/14/2025

Another colorful sunset in our mountain paradise – Pic taken 7/14/2025

Wednesday – 16 Jul 2025 – 7:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 85, and on Tuesday it was 86. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots were near 40.

The minimum relative humidity Monday afternoon was 16% and Tuesday afternoon it was 16%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 29mph and on Tuesday it was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8392 / 19564636 / 1956

Precipitation summary… The trend continues for most of us to hardly get anything while a few lucky folks get enough rain to water their grass and flowers.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Tuesday morning range from zero to 0.15”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Tuesday morning range from zero to 0.15”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Wednesday morning range from zero to 0.14”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Wednesday morning range from zero to 0.14”

Fires and smoke…

Thankfully there have been no new fires reported in our area.

The Little Devil Fire grew to 7.5 acres and was then quickly controlled.

The smoke and AQI map Wednesday evening shows light smoke and “moderate” air quality over our area.
The smoke and AQI map Wednesday evening shows light smoke and “moderate” air quality over our area.

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite loop roughly 5:30pm to 6:30pm Wednesday – The ridge is nearly over our heads and suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity. The ridge will slowly move east over the next two days and allow more instability and moisture to move into our area.
Infrared satellite loop roughly 5:30pm to 6:30pm Wednesday – The ridge is nearly over our heads and suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity. The ridge will slowly move east over the next two days and allow more instability and moisture to move into our area.
Radar at 6:52pm Wednesday – The lack of activity in our area isn’t just the “Four Corners radar donut hole”. Compare this to the satellite loop above. There isn’t much going on near us.
Radar at 6:52pm Wednesday – The lack of activity in our area isn’t just the “Four Corners radar donut hole”. Compare this to the satellite loop above. There isn’t much going on near us.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity will peak Thursday through Saturday and then taper off the first half of next week. ***

*** Fire danger will remain high until our forests get a good soaking. The first few thunderstorms could spark lightning fires. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Wednesday through next Wednesday… The weak monsoon plume will wobble back and forth across the region. Moisture and instability will peak Thursday through Saturday and then taper off the first half of next week.

Temps… Highs will be near 80 to near 90 and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows 0.20” in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows 0.20” in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will persist. We’ll see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 31 Jul at 6am shows 0.84” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.39”.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 31 Jul at 6am shows 0.84” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.39”.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip for us. Unfortunately, I agree.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip for us. Unfortunately, I agree.

The next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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