Great weather this week!…

Beautiful day at the lake! – pic taken 5/20/2025

Beautiful day at the lake! – pic taken 5/20/2025

Wednesday – 21 May 2025 – 9:10am

*** We are doing a presentation at the library TODAY at 1pm. We’ll discuss our summer monsoon. We hope to see you there! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 46, and on Tuesday it was 63. The low this morning was 28 and the cold spots were in the low 20s. Tuesday morning the low at the airfield was 23 and the cold spots dipped into the high teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 22mph and on Tuesday it was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6980 / 19613217 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There was no precip in the last 24 hours, but we did better than I expected from the last system. Storm totals are below.

CoCoRaHS reports for the recent storm ranged from 0.15” to 0.45”.
CoCoRaHS reports for the recent storm ranged from 0.15” to 0.45”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday morning – We have dry, stable flow out of the northwest and not much going on until next week.
Water vapor satellite Wednesday morning – We have dry, stable flow out of the northwest and not much going on until next week.

There is nothing on radar Wednesday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fantastic weather the rest of the week! ***

*** Slight chance for a few spotty showers each afternoon next week. ***

Rest of Wednesday through Sunday… Upper-level flow out of the northwest and west is bringing us dry, stable air. We’ll have lots of sun, warmer temps, breezy afternoons, and dry weather.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 30s. Saturday and Sunday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Monday and Tuesday… Less stable air with a little more moisture will give us a slight chance for a few spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get enough rain to wet the ground.

Temps… Highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

WPC precip through Tuesday afternoon shows none near Pagosa and around 0.10” in our mountains.
WPC precip through Tuesday afternoon shows none near Pagosa and around 0.10” in our mountains.

The 8-14 day period… The jet stream and storm track are pushing well to our north, as they should this time of year. Marginally unstable air and a little bit of moisture will give us a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two. We’ll be playing the rain lottery.

The Euro ensemble precip to 4 Jun at 6pm on the top shows 0.46” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.80”. That’s a pretty big difference. Let’s cheer for the GFS.
The Euro ensemble precip to 4 Jun at 6pm on the top shows 0.46” for Pagosa and the GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.80”. That’s a pretty big difference. Let’s cheer for the GFS.

The next post will be on Friday or Saturday. Enjoy the great weather!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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