Spotty afternoon showers next week…

Some of our roads are still closed and are very enjoyable to walk this time of year. – pic taken by Arleen on 4/21/2025

Thursday – 24 Apr 2025 – 7:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 64, and on Wednesday it was 66. The low this morning was 28. The cold spots dipped into the high teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 28mph and on Wednesday it was 30mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	76 / 1987	25	9 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Thursday evening – The main storm track is to our north. It’s dry over the Four Corners region but a little unstable. The low off the CA coast will slowly move east and then northeast over the next four days. The best moisture and storm energy will miss us to the north. — *Water vapor satellite Thursday evening –* The main storm track is to our north. It’s dry over the Four Corners region but a little unstable. The low off the CA coast will slowly move east and then northeast over the next four days. The best moisture and storm energy will miss us to the north.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry this week. Spotty afternoon showers next week. ***

*** Gusty winds each afternoon. Sunday will be the windiest day of the week with 30-40mph gusts. ***

Rest of Thursday through Sunday… For the rest of the week, we’ll be between a ridge to our east and a trough to our west. Upper-level flow out of the southwest will be a little unstable but there won’t be much moisture.

We’ll have mostly sunny skies and gusty afternoon winds.

Temps…

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. *** Sunday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph. ***

Monday through Thursday… A trough will move through from the west on Monday. There isn’t much moisture, but instability could kick up a few scattered showers each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

The best chance for showers is Tuesday afternoon. Lucky spots could get up to 0.05” of precip.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*NBM precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.20” in our mountains*

The 8-14 day period… I don’t see any big storms, but afternoon instability could kick up spotty, hit and miss showers. The forecast models show a little more precip each model run – a good trend.

*Euro ensemble precip on the top to 9 May at 6am shows 0.74” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.91”. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.*

The next post will be on Saturday or Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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