Dry this week – spotty afternoon showers next week…

A beautiful winter-like scene on Sunday. Just two days later, there is no hint of snow in that field. – pic taken 4/20/2025

A beautiful winter-like scene on Sunday. Just two days later, there is no hint of snow in that field.  – pic taken 4/20/2025

Tuesday – 22 Apr 2025 – 6pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 54, and on Monday it was 59. The low this morning was 27. The cold spots dipped into the high teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 17mph and on Monday it was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176 / 1989258 / 1967

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – There isn’t much moisture in the low levels. The main storm track is well to our north.
Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – There isn’t much moisture in the low levels. The main storm track is well to our north.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry this week. Spotty afternoon showers next week. ***

*** Gusty winds each afternoon. Sunday will be the windiest day of the week with 30-35mph gusts. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Sunday… A transient ridge is moving through Tuesday afternoon.

For the rest of the week, we’ll be between a ridge to our east and a trough to our west.  Upper-level flow out of the southwest will be a little unstable but there won’t be much moisture.

We’ll have mostly sunny skies and gusty afternoon winds.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds…Wednesday and Thursday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. *** Sunday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph. ***

Monday and Tuesday… A trough will move through from the west. There isn’t much moisture, but instability could kick up a few scattered showers each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

The best chance for showers is Tuesday afternoon. Lucky spots could get up to 0.05” of precip.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

WPC precip to next Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains
WPC precip to next Tuesday at 6pm shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains

The 8-14 day period… I don’t see any big storms, but afternoon instability could kick up spotty, hit and miss showers. We’ll be playing the rain lottery.

Euro ensemble precip on the top to 7 May at 6am shows 0.44” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.66”. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.
Euro ensemble precip on the top to 7 May at 6am shows 0.44” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 0.66”. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.

The next post will be on Thursday or Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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