Lots of blue sky and fun groomed runs up at Wolf Creek – Pic taken on 1/16/2025
Tuesday – 21 Jan 2025 – 7:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 25 and on Tuesday it was 28. The low this morning was -9. The cold spots dipped down -15.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 20mph and on Tuesday it was 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 37 | 55 / 1944 | 3 | -26 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Lots of sun and a warming trend through Friday. ***
*** Potential for snow Saturday evening through Monday morning. ***
Tuesday night through Saturday afternoon… We’ll have mostly dry, upper-level northwest flow. Expect lots of sun with occasional patches of clouds moving through. Temps will warm to near average by Friday.
Clouds will increase Saturday ahead of the next low-pressure system. Scattered snowshowers are possible over the mountains Saturday afternoon.
Temps… Tuesday night lows will be -5 to around 10. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be -5 to around 10. Friday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Thursday and Friday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph. Saturday afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.
Saturday evening through Monday… The next low-pressure system is expected to cut-off and move slowly through the desert southwest region. There are still sizable inconsistencies with timing and snow amounts.
Some models expect snowshowers to end by Monday afternoon while some expect scattered snowshowers to persist into Wednesday. Snow amounts vary from a low around 2” from the Canadian model to a high of 8” from the NBM.
Rough first guess snow amounts…
Pagosa area: 2-4”
Wolf Creek area: 6-10”
I’ll get a better handle on snow amounts and timing as the data gets better.
Temps… Saturday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Monday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.
Winds… Sunday peaks will be around 15mph and Monday peaks will be 10-15mph.
The 8-15 day period… After next weekend’s low-pressure system, our nemesis, the west coast ridge, wants to take over again – ugh.
In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.57”.
In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.51”.
In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.75”.
In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.30”.
Most of this precip is expected Saturday night into Monday.
My next post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
