A snowshower over the mountains yesterday around sunset – Pic taken on 1/22/2025
Thursday – 23 Jan 2025 – 6:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 32 and on Thursday it was 30. The low this morning was -2. The cold spots dipped into the low minus teens.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 28mph and on Thursday it was 26mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 38 | 55 / 1951 | 1 | -28 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Sunny and warmer on Friday. ***
*** Potential for waves of scattered snowshowers Saturday afternoon into Thursday morning. ***
Thursday night through Saturday afternoon… We’ll have mostly dry, upper-level northwest flow. Expect lots of sun with occasional patches of clouds moving through. Temps will warm to near average by Friday.
Clouds will increase Saturday ahead of the next low-pressure system. Scattered snowshowers are possible over the mountains Saturday afternoon.
Temps… Thursday night lows will be -5 to around 10. Friday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Friday afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph. Saturday afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.
Big picture – Saturday evening through Thursday morning… A cut-off low will wobble around the desert southwest region. We’ll see waves of scattered snowshowers through much of this period.
Cut-off lows are difficult to forecast. Much like hurricanes, they move erratically because upper-level steering flow is weak or nonexistent. A “wobble” of just a hundred miles in any direction significantly impacts the outcome.
I am making big adjustments to my forecast. I’ll continue to dial in the details as the data gets better.
Round 1 Saturday evening to late Sunday evening… The cut-off low will sink south over southern CA. We’ll be on the far eastern edge of the first wave of moisture and storm energy.
We’ll see hit and miss snowshowers with light snow accumulations. If the low sinks any farther south or west or is a little weaker, we won’t get anything.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 1-2”
Pagosa area: zero to a half inch in a few lucky spots
Temps… Saturday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the mid to high 30s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Sunday night through Monday… We’ll have a little bit of a break with a weak chance for a few spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of new snow.
Temps… Sunday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Monday highs will be in the high 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Round 2 – Monday night through Thursday morning… The low is expected to move slowly through central AZ and then central NM. It will be more active with bands of scattered snowshowers. If the low tracks farther south, we’ll hardly get anything.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 3-6”
Pagosa area: 1-3”
Temps… Monday night lows will be in the high single digits to the high teens. The rest of the period highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Here’s a comparison between the Euro and GFS ensembles…
This is Euro and GFS ensemble 24-precip amounts for the next 15 days. They’re read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart on each one shows the 24-hour precip amounts for 30-50 runs of the forecast models. The bottom graphs those amounts. I added the blue line at early next Friday morning.
Compare how different these are. For the first wave Saturday night/Sunday, the Euro, on top, expects almost nothing while the GFS is a little more optimistic. Both models have trended for less and less precip. The models line up a bit better for the second wave. However, timing and amounts are still inconsistent, especially for the GFS.
Now let’s compare to the right of the blue line for next week. The Euro is 50/50 on the pattern remaining active and indicates another weak system around 2 Feb. The GFS is more adamant about it being active but is a disorganized mess.
Summary: There is still uncertainty with the cut-off low this week. Next week both models expect it to stay active but there is zero certainty in details.
Side note: We look at these products and many more 2 or 3 times a day to try to figure out this complicated puzzle.
My next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
