First system is wimpy – second system looks good…

Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Sunday morning into Monday afternoon – Pic taken 10/31/2024

Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Sunday morning into Monday afternoon – Pic taken 10/31/2024

Saturday – 2 Nov 2024 – 1:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 53. The low Saturday morning was 24.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 6mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5475 / 1945204 / 1929

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Saturday afternoon – Clouds will increase ahead of the trough. An upper-level low will form and move across northeast AZ and then central NM. Storm energy and jet stream support will be weak in our area, so I don’t expect much precip.
Satellite Saturday afternoon – Clouds will increase ahead of the trough. An upper-level low will form and move across northeast AZ and then across central NM. Storm energy and jet stream support will be weak in our area, so I don’t expect much precip.
Radar at noon Saturday – There is a narrow band of light showers ahead of the trough moving east.
Radar at noon Saturday – There is a narrow band of light showers ahead of the trough moving east.

Forecast highlights…

*** Sunday morning into Monday afternoon roads could be slick, especially in the mountains. ***

*** Wednesday into Friday the first good snow of the season is possible in the valley. ***

Saturday evening through Monday evening… A low will move west to east across central NM. Upper-level flow and storm energy won’t line up well for us, so I don’t expect much precip.

Timing…

Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains early Sunday morning and then over the valley after sunrise Sunday. Hit and miss showers will persist until the system moves through Monday evening. Precip will be mostly light but could cause poor driving conditions, especially in the mountains.

Snow levels will be 7,500-8,000ft during the day and 6,500-7,000ft at night.

Snow amounts for this period:

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

Valley: up to 1”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s. Saturday and Sunday lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Monday lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

The NWS snow forecast shows less than 1” for Pagosa and 3-6” in our mountains. 
The NWS snow forecast shows less than 1” for Pagosa and 3-6” in our mountains. 

Tuesday… Transient ridging will give us a brief break. Patches of clouds will continue to move through. The mountains could get a few spotty snowshowers Tuesday night.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Early Wednesday into Friday afternoon… The next low-pressure system will move through. Some forecast models expect the storm to end late Thursday, while some have it lingering into Saturday morning. At this point, I think it will linger into Friday afternoon.

Timing… The first scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains after midnight Tuesday and then over the valley around sunrise on Wednesday. The heaviest precip is possible Wednesday morning into Thursday afternoon and then will become hit and miss into Friday afternoon.

Snow levels…

Wednesday: 6,500-7,000ft

Thursday: 7,000-7,500ft

Friday: around 7,000ft

Snow amounts for this period…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 12-20”

Valley above 7,600ft: 6-10”

Valley below 7,600ft: 3-6”

Note: Temps in the valley will be above freezing during the day so snow will struggle to accumulate.

Winds… Gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

WPC precip to 5pm Friday shows 1.13” near Pagosa, 1.31” for Chama, and up to 2.50” in our mountains. There is still a wide range of forecast amounts from 0.77” for the GFS to 1.59” for the Euro. Most of the models are in the 0.90” to 1.25” range.
WPC precip to 5pm Friday shows 1.13” near Pagosa, 1.31” for Chama, and up to 2.50” in our mountains. There is still a wide range of forecast amounts from 0.77” for the GFS to 1.59” for the Euro. Most of the models are in the 0.90” to 1.25” range.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon