Gorgeous “Get Outside” Weather till Monday!

Mountains

Leftover fall colors viewed from Windy Pass are set off by snow covered peaks (click on title of post to see image)

Wednesday – 23 Oct 2024 – 7:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature today was 65. The low this morning was 33. Cold spots have been down to 23.

The peak wind at Stevens Field today was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6173 / 198823-2 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There has not been any precipitation in the last 2 days. Though there has been a lot of frost deposited on everything with the cooler temperatures.

Forecast discussion…

SaT 23 oCT 24
Satellite Wednesday afternoon – High pressure is firmly in place over Colorado. The Polar Front Jet, associated fronts and weather is well to the north.

There is nothing significant on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and temps slightly above average through Sunday. ***

*** Tracking a potential storm 28-30 October. ***

Rest of Wednesday through Sunday… Ridging has built in over the region.  We’ll have lots of sun, dry weather, and temps are above seasonal averages.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

The 6-14 day period…  

Round one: All models are coming into agreement with an area of low pressure sinking into our area and impacting us from the 28th to the 30th. On Monday precipitation will begin in the evening hours. Snow levels will start out at 10,000 feet late Monday, sink to 8,000 by Tuesday afternoon and 7,000 feet by midnight. Everything will clear out of the area on Wednesday. The mountains could get 10-15″ of snow, while valley areas will only get 1-2″. Upper valley areas could see 2-6″ of snow.

Round 1

Round two: An additional area of low pressure will impact our area next Friday, November 1st to the 3rd.

Euro 14 day

Euro ensemble precip to 5am on 7 Nov above shows 0.82” near Pagosa. GFS ensemble precip to 5am on 7 Nov below shows .68 near Pagosa Springs. The heavier precipitation is till to our north.

GFS 14 day

My next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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